The careers of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have echoed each other so often down the years that it was almost inevitable the parallels would extend into the autumn of their playing days.
So it is that, at the age of 35, Nadal finds himself returning from a lengthy injury layoff just as the Australian Open heaves into view – exactly as Federer did in 2017. Nadal, however, will be hard pushed to emulate the fairytale ending Federer wrote that year, when the Swiss defeated his great rival in the final to become the oldest winner of a major in 45 years.
For one thing, it is far from certain the Spaniard will even turn up, having tested positive for Covid-19 on his recent return home from the Mubadala World Tennis Championship in Abu Dhabi. After losing to Andy Murray and Denis Shapovalov at the exhibition event in the Emirati capital, where his coach Carlos Moya also contracted the virus, Nadal expressed doubts about his participation even before his latest setback.
“The idea is to go there and try my best there in Australia,” said Nadal, who returned to action in the UAE three months after undergoing treatment on a long-standing foot injury in Barcelona. “Being 100% honest, I can’t guarantee it. I need to speak with my team.
“It’s more than six months since the last real official match. Things are difficult and I accept that… I was able to compete in both matches and even had my chances, so if we put that in perspective it’s a very positive thing.”
Nadal, who limped away from Roland Garros in June after his semi-final loss to Novak Djokovic and was subsequently forced to withdraw from Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open, must be grateful for small mercies. Craig Tiley, the Australian Open tournament director, believes the Spaniard will make it to Melbourne – “I’m confident Rafa will be here,” he said last week – but it remains to be seen what shape the former champion will be in if he does.
Nadal is a different competitive animal to Federer, whose 2017 triumph hinged on minor tactical and technical adjustments such as shortening points with bolder play, flattening out his backhand and approaching the net at the earliest opportunity. A player who thrives on the rhythm of regular competition, and the confidence that comes with an accumulation of match wins, Nadal was downplaying his Australian Open prospects even before his ill-fated sojourn in Abu Dhabi added illness to injury.
“I don’t have big expectations now,” he Nadal as he prepared to return to the match court for the first time since September’s defeat to Lloyd Harris in Washington. “I really hope the foot is going to get better and better to be again at the level that I want to be. If I am able to play with no limitations, I want to fight again for everything, so that’s the goal.
“It’s going to be super difficult for me. If things are going well, I’m only going to play one tournament before Australia and these two matches here so the amount of hours on court at the competitive level before such a tough and demanding tournament like Australia will be not much.”
The Majorcan finds himself in a Catch-22 situation: crying out for match play, while also needing to manage his body and his priorities. So should he travel to Australia on a wing and a prayer, hopeful that his troublesome left foot will withstand the rigours of an early return to five-set combat? Or should he skip a third successive major and instead focus his efforts on a more gradual build-up to the European clay-court swing, when the conditions will be more favourable for body and mind?
Neither path is without drawbacks.
The wisdom of turning up as scheduled for the ATP 250 event that gets underway in Melbourne on 4 January, barely a fortnight after he was diagnosed with Covid, seems questionable. Nadal spoke of experiencing “some unpleasant moments” after contracting the virus, and a swift return to competitive play may be challenging even for a player of his unique physical gifts. Were he to miss that event, however, he would go into the Australian Open having played just two exhibition matches since early August. Hardly the most auspicious circumstances for a return to the longform version of the sport, even without his foot untested and the oppressive heat of an Australian summer to contend with. It is probably not a coincidence that Nadal, a man who draws strength from rhythm and repetition, has claimed just one title at the season’s first slam, where preparation time is minimal and players are required to hit the ground running.
Logic, then, would suggest he might be better off staying at home. Yet logic and sport can be uncomfortable bedfellows, as Federer’s triumph of four years ago demonstrated, and the former champion would not have to look too hard to find compelling reasons to travel. Indeed, with Nadal, Djokovic and Federer all level on 20 slams, it would seem counterintuitive simply to step aside, potentially easing the Serb’s path to the top of the all-time list. Neither would it make sense to use the early stages of the clay-court season, a period when Nadal traditionally burnishes his perennial aura of invincibility on the red stuff, simply to get back up to speed on the match court. There is a crown to be regained in Paris, and the 13-time champion will be eager to banish the memory of June’s semi-final defeat to Djokovic.
Nadal is hardly oblivious to the difficult decisions that lie ahead.
“As a consequence of the situation,” he wrote on social media after receiving the results of a PCR test taken on his return to Spain, “I have to have total flexibility with my calendar and I will analyse my options depending on my evolution.”
It is Nadal’s misfortune to have had ample experience of such situations. From his knees to his back, his wrist to his foot, the Spaniard’s career has been repeatedly blighted by injury. Yet, despite missing nine majors over the years, predominantly with various different ailments – by way of contrast, Federer played 65 consecutive slams before injury intervened, and Djokovic 51 – Nadal has consistently defied the doomsayers who once claimed his physical style of play would force him out of the game at an early age. Nobody knows better than Nadal what it takes to come back successfully from long-term injury, and whatever decision he makes will doubtless be the right one for his body, mind and remaining aspirations.
One thing is clear: he will not return to the sport simply to make up the numbers. “I still believe that I will be competitive enough to give myself chances to compete for the things that I have been competing for the last 15 years,” Nadal said in Abu Dhabi. “If not, personally it doesn’t make sense. I am not playing at all for money or just for fun, I am playing to keep achieving goals – or at least, to enjoy the process to try to achieve my goals.”
With that in mind, Nadal could do worse than take a page out of his own playbook. In early 2013, as he prepared to return from a knee injury that had kept him out of the game for six months, the Spaniard was hit by a stomach virus. He promptly pulled out of the Australian Open, reasoning that he would be too undercooked to give of his best. “Because of the virus, I have been unable to get any match practice and simply would not be doing myself or my friends in Australia justice if I went down there so unprepared,” he said. “You need your body to be at its best for the Australian Open.”
Nadal instead began his season on clay, racking up a dozen wins in a month as he reached a final in the Chilean coastal city of Viña del Mar before winning titles in Sao Paolo and Acapulco. The effect was revelatory. Titles in Indian Wells, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome and Roland Garros followed, Nadal’s sole defeat coming against Djokovic in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters. Further titles were to come in Montreal, Cincinnati and New York, where Nadal beat Djokovic to claim his second US Open title. Having dropped out of the top four for the first time in nine years following his Australian Open withdrawal, Nadal finished the season as year-end No 1 for the third time.
Eight years on, with Djokovic the reigning champion at three of the four slams and the likes of Daniil Medvedev, Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas eager to stake claims of their own, the sport’s landscape looks dramatically different. But while the days of serial dominance are not about to return, that does not mean Nadal’s past holds no useful lessons for his present. Every great champion must go back to basics from time to time. As Nadal contemplates his next move, he could do worse than reflect on what his younger self would have done.