The odds are lengthening on Rafael Nadal writing another chapter in French Open history after the 14-time champion announced that his recovery from the hip injury he suffered at the Australian Open has not gone as expected.
In a statement on social media, Nadal said he had experienced “a difficult few weeks and months” since tearing his psoas muscle during a defeat to Mackenzie McDonald at Melbourne Park in January.
The initial prognosis was that the Spaniard would be out for up to eight weeks, leaving him touch and go for the sunshine swing of Indian Wells and Miami, but almost certain to return in time for the start of the European clay-court season.
Thirteen weeks on, however, and after missing the Monte Carlo Masters and the Barcelona Open, Nadal has ruled himself out of next week’s Madrid Open, leaving the Rome Masters as the only warm-up tournament he could potentially play before Roland Garros. That in itself may not be a problem for the 36-year-old, who won in Paris in similar circumstances last year after his preparations were limited by injury. Of greater concern is that his hip has not responded as expected to treatment.
“We find ourselves in a difficult situation,” said Nadal. “The weeks are passing and I had the illusion of being able to play in tournaments that are the most important in my career such as Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Rome, Roland Garros.
“For the moment, I have missed Monte Carlo and Barcelona. I will not be able to be in Madrid, unfortunately.
“The injury still hasn’t healed, and I can’t work out what I need to compete.”
Nadal has been posting social media updates on his rehabilitation since late February but, despite several images depicting his return to the practice court, his progress has evidently been less meaningful than anticipated. The Spaniard said he would now undergo further treatment.
“The reality is that the situation is not what we would have expected,” said Nadal. “All medical indications have been followed, but the evolution has not been what they initially told us.
“I was training, but now a few days ago we decided to change course a bit, do another treatment and see if things improve to try to get to what comes next. I can’t give deadlines because if I knew I would tell you, but I don’t know. This is how things are now.”
Should Nadal miss the French Open for the first time since 2004, it would potentially ease Novak Djokovic’s path to a 23rd grand slam title, a landmark that would move him once clear of the Spaniard and three ahead of the retired Roger Federer. Nadal has won all but two of his 10 meetings with Djokovic at Roland Garros.
The Serb, however, has injury concerns of his own. He wore a bandage on his right elbow during his recent defeat to Lorenzo Musetti in Monte Carlo, and admitted before the Banja Luka Open in Bosnia that the joint is “not in an ideal condition”. Djokovic underwent surgery on his elbow in 2018. Carlos Alcaraz, who defeated Djokovic on clay in their only previous meeting at the Madrid Open last year, would start the tournament as an obvious favourite if the former champion is less than 100% fit.
As for Nadal, he can only continue down the well-trodden path to rehabilitation in the hope of pulling off yet another of the miraculous comebacks that defined his 2022 season. The Spaniard won last year’s Australian Open only five months after treatment on a foot injury left him on crutches. He then recovered from a fractured rib suffered in Indian Wells – and a recurrence of his foot problem, which forced him to compete in Paris with pain-killing injections – to claim a 14th victory at Roland Garros.
An abdominal tear forced Nadal to withdraw from the Wimbledon semi-finals, and the injury recurred at the US Open, where he was beaten by Frances Tiafoe in the fourth round. Yet, for all his travails, he has rebounded from so many physical problems over the course of his storied career that it would be foolhardy to discount the possibility of another improbable revival.
“I have no choice but to try to have the right attitude throughout this time, try to give myself the opportunity to compete in one of the tournaments that remains of the clay season,” said Nadal. “I have no choice but to work and be with the right mentality.”