Fifteen years ago, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal arrived at Flushing Meadows facing much the same expectations that now confront Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. They had just contested one of the greatest Wimbledon finals in history, Nadal edging a rain-interrupted cliff-hanger in four hours and 48 minutes to claim his first title on Centre Court, deny Federer a record-equalling sixth consecutive triumph, and depose the Swiss as world No 1.
It was, famously, a match of almost unbearable tension and drama, Federer saving two match points in a classic fourth-set tiebreak before pushing his Spanish rival all the way in a nip-and-tuck decider that ended in near darkness. Naturally enough, the world wanted more, and a renewal of hostilities at the US Open was feverishly anticipated. The one man who didn’t share that enthusiasm for a rematch was Andy Murray, who shredded the script with a four-set semi-final win over Nadal.
For those who see this year’s US Open as a two-horse race, it is a salutary tale, a reminder that in sport no conclusion is foregone, no bet safe – least of all at the season’s final major, where bodies and minds are at their most weary after the relentless grind of a grand slam summer. Federer and Nadal, respectively aged 22 and 27 at the time, never did meet in New York, and it is far from guaranteed that Alcaraz and Djokovic, with 16 years between them, will not go the same route, however much we may wish otherwise.
It’s not as though we haven’t been thoroughly spoilt already. Three of the four meetings between Alcaraz, the top seed and defending champion, and Djokovic, a 23-time major winner and all-time great, have come in the past three months. Each match has offered a feast of extraordinary shot-making, incredible physical and mental intensity, and gripping theatre.
When Alcaraz prevailed in a classic Wimbledon final that bore some notable echoes of 2008, the Spaniard ending a long spell of Centre Court domination by the reigning champion in a near-identical four hours and 42 minutes, it was impossible to imagine the contest would be trumped just five weeks later. Yet the remarkable duel between Djokovic and Alcaraz in Cincinnati, where the Serb likened his 5-7, 7-6, 7-6 victory to winning a grand slam, did just that.
“He’s always pushing me to the limit,” said Djokovic after recovering from match point down to win what was, at 11 minutes shy of four hours, the longest three-set final in ATP Tour history.
“I think I do to him pretty much the same thing. That’s why we produced a memorable final. It was one of the best, most exciting, and most difficult finals I was ever part of in best-of-three, no doubt, throughout my career.
“That’s why I fell on the ground after I won the match, because it felt like winning a grand slam, to be honest. The amount of exchanges and rallies. It was physically so demanding and gruelling that I felt very exhausted for the next few days. Those are the moments in matches that I still push myself [for] on a daily basis for, day in and day out, practice, sacrifice, commitment.”
Given the wild improbability of Djokovic and Alcaraz staging two such remarkable battles in such close proximity – and lest we forget, their semi-final meeting in Paris was also shaping up nicely before Alcaraz, overwhelmed by nervous tension, succumbed to cramp – it feels almost greedy to expect a third. But who might make like Murray in 2008 and flip the script?
In Alcaraz’s half, the man most likely is perhaps Jannik Sinner, who came within a point of upending the eventual champion in a quarter-final classic last year. The Italian has been one of the few players able to trouble Alcaraz on a consistent basis, a point he underlined earlier this year when he defeated the Spaniard in the semi-finals of the Miami Open to avenge a defeat in Indian Wells. Up to a career-high ranking of sixth after winning a maiden Masters 1000 title in Toronto, the 22-year-old will be eager to continue on the upward trajectory that propelled him to a first major semi-final at Wimbledon.
Nor should the claims of Daniil Medvedev, the third seed and champion two years ago, be overlooked. Projected to face the winner of Alcaraz’s quarter, the Russian has had an underwhelming summer since reaching the last four at Wimbledon for the first time, losing to Alex De Minaur in Toronto and suffering a rare defeat to Alexander Zverev in Cincinnati. Yet it would be foolhardy to discount the claims of a man who has only once failed to reach the semi-finals or better since 2019.
Medvedev, who was defeated by Alcaraz at Wimbledon and also lost to the Spaniard in the final of Indian Wells, has been barely less enthralled by the 20-year-old’s rivalry with Djokovic than the rest of the watching world.
“I watched most of the [Wimbledon] final,” said Medvedev, who opens against Attila Balázs of Hungary. “It was amazing to watch, because Novak was kind of down in the beginning of the fourth set. I was surprised he managed to win it with the way the match was going.
“Then, at the same time, I was surprised how Carlos managed to turn it back. That’s why at the moment they are No 1 and 2 in the world. You cannot argue with that because they are able, even when they play against each other, to turn matches around so many times. Same about Cincinnati… amazing level.
“Great rivalry so far. But now, every tournament, a goal for everyone is to try to stop them from playing each other.”
That being the case, it would be foolish not to look beyond the usual suspects in assessing where the danger might come from. In Alcaraz’s case, early opponents could include Max Purcell, the idiosyncratic Australian who extended him to a decider in Cincinnati, and Cameron Norrie, who defeated him six months ago in the final of the Rio Open. Adding to the potential for hazard is the form of Alcaraz himself, which has been less than destructive in recent weeks. While he raised his level in the final, Alcaraz’s progress in Cincinnati was far from assured, with the Spaniard taken the distance in every round.
Djokovic appears to have been dealt the easier hand draw-wise, although history suggests the Serb can take little for granted at what has been arguably his least successful major. Lack of success is, of course, a relative concept for a man whose CV includes three US Open titles and a further six appearances in the final. Yet, as those near misses suggest, Flushing Meadows has not always been a happy hunting ground for Djokovic. Unable to enter the US last year as a result of border restrictions on travellers unvaccinated against Covid, Djokovic delivered an underwhelming performance with the grand slam at stake against Medvedev in 2021, and was defaulted for inadvertently hitting a line judge with a ball a year earlier.
Things appear to be looking up for the 36-year-old, however. According to artificial intelligence analysis, Djokovic has been handed the most favourable draw of the 128 starters in New York. Following an opener against Alexandre Muller, a Frenchman ranked 84 in the world, the world No 2 could face Laslo Djere, a fellow Serb who took him the distance in Belgrade last year, in round three. A first meeting with Francisco Cerundolo, the Argentinian world No 20, could await in the last 16, ahead of a projected showdown with either Stefanos Tsitsipas, the seventh seed, or Taylor Fritz, the American world No 9.
The most significant obstacle to Djokovic’s progress may come in the semi-finals, where he is projected to face Holger Rune, the Danish fourth seed. Rune has the rare distinction of holding a positive record against the former champion, having won the two most recent of their three meetings, indoors in Paris last November and on the clay courts of Rome earlier this season. Yet, having suffered a back injury that forced him to retire from his opening match in Cincinnati, and then taken a thinly-veiled dig at the decision to schedule his Flushing Meadows opener against Spain’s Roberto Carballés Baena on Court 5, the 20-year-old has not been in the best place of late. The same could be said of Casper Ruud, a finalist last year but beaten early in Toronto and Cincinnati.
With the third quarter potentially wide open, conditions may be ripe for a home success story. Could Frances Tiafoe, who so memorably reached the semi-finals last year, riding the momentum of a fourth-round win over Nadal to push Alcaraz all the way to a fifth set, make good on his emotional vow in the aftermath of that defeat to “come back and win this thing one day”? Again, recent form is not wholly encouraging. A better bet for domestic success may be Tommy Paul, who defeated Alcaraz on the way to the Canadian Open semi-finals and took him the distance a week later in Cincinnati.
Ultimately, though, it is hard to look beyond Djokovic in the lower half.
“He’s one of the greatest of all time,” said Alcaraz. “No doubts about it. Everything he does in the game is unbelievable. [A] mental rock. I’m going to say he never gives up.
“I mean, [in] tough, tough moments, probably he shows that he’s down and he’s going to lose, and he always gives the chance to himself to keep playing and be able to win.”
Whatever history may suggest about the prospects of the US Open delivering a final between the two best players in the world, one thing is certain: a first-round victory over Muller will see Djokovic usurp Alcaraz at the top of the rankings, the seventh time this season the top ranking will have passed between them. Even when they are not facing each other across a net, their fortunes seem to remain inextricably entwined. If the prevailing wind blows history to one side a fortnight from now, few will be complaining.