Just as a clear narrative appeared to be developing at the top of women’s tennis, along came Mirra Andreeva, a rising teenage star, and Jasmine Paolini, a late-blooming 28-year-old Italian, to rip up the script.
On an afternoon of major upsets at the French Open, Andreeva, 17, fought back from a set down to claim the biggest win of her career against Aryna Sabalenka, becoming the youngest women’s grand slam semi-finalist since Martina Hingis in 1997. Sabalenka, the second seed and reigning Australian Open champion, struggled physically from the outset and on several occasions looked close to throwing in the towel.
It was a desperate stroke of misfortune for the 26-year-old Belarusian, particularly after Elena Rybakina, the fourth seed, was earlier beaten by Paolini in straight sets. With Iga Swiatek, the world No 1 and defending champion, already through to face Coco Gauff in the top half of the draw, the expectation was that the top four seeds would reach the semi-finals in Paris for the first time since 1992. But a bold and brilliant performance from Paolini put a dent in the notion of a women’s big four which Andreeva, to her immense credit, hammered home.
“I tried to stay in the game, stay focused, not to wait for her mistakes, to try to finish everything by myself,” said Andreeva following her 6-7 (5-7), 6-4, 6-4 win.
“If we look back, I wouldn’t expect myself playing [in the] semi-finals, because that was just kind of a dream for me in the beginning of the tournament.”
Andreeva’s dream was Sabalenka’s nightmare. A pair of early breaks could not disguise the Belarusian’s discomfort on serve and sluggish movement and, as she fell behind against an opponent she had dismissed comfortably in each of their previous two meetings, she gestured agitatedly to her support team. After seven games, a doctor arrived on the scene, pills were administered, and Sabalenka somehow summoned the strength to recover from 3-5 down and see out the set.
But Andreeva held firm, maintaining her concentration despite the weight of the occasion and the distracting nature of Sabalenka’s predicament, and having levelled the contest she showed admirable composure to recover from a break down in the decider. Serving to stay in the tournament, Sabalenka fought off a first match point with a courageous forehand winner, but Andreeva would not be denied. The teenager ripped a backhand winner down the line to bring up a second opportunity, and this time she converted it with an inspired defensive lob.
In Paolini, she will face another opponent enjoying her finest run at a major. The Italian, who started the year ranked 29th, had never been beyond the second round at this level before reaching the last 16 of the Australian Open in January. Two months later, she was scheduled to face Rybakina in the Dubai quarter-finals only for the former Wimbledon champion to withdraw with illness. Paolini went on to win the WTA 1000 event, defeating Anna Kalinskaya in the final, and her growing belief that she can compete at the highest level will be reinforced when she breaks into the top 10 for the first time next week.
A near-flawless first set gave Paolini the platform for a 6-2, 4-6. 6-4 victory over Rybakina, the Italian dropping just one point on serve while threatening the world No 4’s delivery throughout. It has been a difficult few weeks for Rybakina, who was forced to abandon her title defence in Rome because of sickness, and has since struggled with sleeping problems and media controversy. She has been winning in Paris even without playing her best tennis, and put herself in a position to do so again after shrugging off an error-strewn start to force a decider, but a poor service game at 4-4 handed Paolini the initiative, and the Italian served out for a famous win.
“I think I started to play better, with more consistency, last year,” said Paolini. “Match by match, I felt more convinced that I can play at a higher level. But it was a process, it’s not like I switched something [on], it was a process.
“Now, I step on court and I say to myself that I have a chance to win the match. Before, sometimes when I was playing against the top players, I was like ‘OK, I need a miracle to win this match,’ so I was already losing the match before even playing.”
Now the shoe will be on the other foot: seeded 12th and by far the more experienced player, Paolini will go into Thursday’s semi-final as the favourite. Then again, as she and Andreeva proved, that doesn’t always count for much.