The sideshow is over; now for the main event. With you-know-who out of the picture, the battle for the Norman Brookes Challenge Cup feels more open than it has done in years. Having won his first major trophy at the US Open – and as the highest seed remaining in the draw – last year’s finalist Daniil Medvedev will surely like his chances of going one step further this time around. Alexander Zverev, the world No 3 and Olympic champion, will be looking to pick up from where he left off in November, when he won the ATP Finals in Turin to end the season with a tour-leading sixth title. As for Matteo Berrettini, a finalist at Wimbledon last summer and the seventh seed here, the Italian must be licking his lips at the prospect of a quarter in which he is now the highest-ranked player.
And then there is Rafael Nadal, the only former Australian Open champion left in the draw, who marked his return to competitive action with victory at the Melbourne Summer Set last week. Of the chief contenders for the title, Nadal is – paradoxically – the most obvious candidate to go all the way and the one least likely to last the distance.
The humble Spaniard would never say as much but, in terms of pedigree, he dwarfs the field. With Novak Djokovic departed and the absent Roger Federer still feeling his way back from his latest round of knee surgery, five-time finalist Andy Murray is the only other player in Melbourne with more than one grand slam on his CV. Beyond that, only Medvedev and Marin Cilic have won a major title. The Australian Open has not been a particularly happy hunting ground for Nadal, who has been plagued by early-season injuries at the event as well as losing four of his five finals, but his knowledge of the course and distance is unmatched among his immediate rivals.
So much for the positives. As Nadal knows full well, experience is no substitute for soundness of body and the reassuring rhythms of regular match play, and in both respects he comes into the tournament sorely wanting. The Spaniard will open his challenge for a record 21st major, against the 66th-ranked American Marcos Giron, with his expectations as low as they have ever been.
Having played just two matches in six months after a longstanding foot injury flared up at the French Open, Nadal returned to the court at an exhibition event in Abu Dhabi in December only to contract Covid. Taken ill on the journey home from the UAE, he was stricken by joint pain and fever for four days. As the symptoms receded, fatigue set in. Only on day eight did Nadal, who is fully vaccinated, clamber on to an exercise bike. A few days later, he took the decision to travel to Melbourne. Forget numbers and records: the 35-year-old is happy just to be back on court.
“Unfortunately, I went through this situation a couple of times in my career,” says Nadal. “The day is going to arrive when a comeback will be impossible. But I just want to try again, I want to give my best. I want to give myself a chance to keep enjoying this beautiful sport, to keep fighting for the things that I have been fighting for for the last 16 years.
“I really believe that if I am healthy, and if I am able to play weeks in a row on the tour, have more or less a normal calendar, I will have my chances to be in an important position on the tour and give myself chances to keep fighting for important things. That’s the main goal for me. First thing, be healthy. Then hold the passion, which sometimes is difficult when you are going through a lot of physical issues.
“But [playing the Australian Open] is something that I am very satisfied about, because it has been a very challenging time for me. The last year and a half with my foot, I have been suffering a lot.”
Nadal, seeded sixth and projected to face Zverev in the quarter-finals, nonetheless knows that if he can work through his current limitations – “accept that you are moving sometimes a little bit slower, sometimes you are going to miss, sometimes things are not coming that quick and that automatic” – anything remains possible.
“Sport changes quickly,” he reflects. “What today looks very difficult may, in a couple of days – the perception, the personal perception, the perception of everyone – change a lot. I want to give myself a chance to make that happen.”
In the absence of Djokovic, Zverev – who namechecks Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, himself and Nadal as the leading title contenders – will sense a major opportunity to reach a second slam final. The German can draw encouragement from the fact that he emerged on the right side of his two most recent hard court matches against Nadal, at the Paris Masters in 2020 and the ATP Finals the year before, and has also won four of his five matches against Berrettini, his potential semi-final opponent.
Even so, Nadal leads their personal head-to-head 6-3, and Zverev will be taking nothing for granted against the former champion should they meet. “I have practised with Rafa, who I think is playing incredible right now again,” says the German, who is targeting a first major this season after losing the US Open final to Dominic Thiem two years ago.
In the lower half of the draw, all eyes will be on Medvedev, who has proclaimed himself “ready, physically and mentally” to challenge for a second successive major. Installed as the title favourite following confirmation of Djokovic’s deportation, the Russian second seed will wear that mantle lightly following his victory over the Serb at Flushing Meadows, which he admits has infused him with fresh self-belief.
“Now I feel like I know even more what I can do, how I can play, what I have to do to play like this,” says Medevedev, who opens his campaign against Switzerland’s Henri Laaksonen.
“Of course, tennis is about ups and downs. We never know what’s going to happen. In general, the US Open title gave me a lot of confidence, I want to say in my life and in my tennis life as well.
“I’m feeling much more confident than last year in terms of knowing my game, what I’m capable of. But I don’t think it means anything for the title itself.”
If the seedings hold, standing between the Muscovite and a second appearance in the final will be Tsitsipas, the world No 4. The Greek, a finalist at the French Open last summer, will be eager to hit the ground running after his form tailed off towards the end of last season. Much will depend on whether he has recovered fully after undergoing elbow surgery in November. The latest medical bulletin offers encouragement.
“I’m feeling good with my arm, which is very nice to see,” says Tsitsipas, who will face a stern challenge should a potential last 16 showdown with Jannik Sinner materialise. “I have recovered very close to 100%. My preparation is going well.”