With 10 Australian Open titles in the bank, the idea of Novak Djokovic approaching the opening grand slam of the season with a sense of trepidation seems almost laughable.
Yet it is only 12 months since Djokovic arrived in Australia unsure of what to expect after the infamous deportation saga of the previous year, when he was sent home over his failure to comply with the country’s strict Covid regulations. Not only is the mental, physical and emotional resilience he showed to move past that moment of uncertainty and rewrite the record books too easily forgotten, it also goes a long way to explaining why, at the age of 36, the Serbian world No 1 remains the man to beat at Melbourne Park.
Lest we forget, this time last year, Djokovic had one grand slam fewer than Rafael Nadal, three less than all-time record holder Margaret Court, and was languishing at fifth in the rankings, 1,750 points behind Carlos Alcaraz, the youngest No 1 in history and freshly minted US Open champion. He was also nursing a 3cm tear in his left hamstring, suffered in Adelaide nine days before the Australian Open. He ended the fortnight level with Nadal and back at No 1; he ended the year equal with Court on 24 majors, having come within one victory of completing a calendar grand slam.
So as Djokovic begins his quest to eclipse Court’s record against Croatia’s Dino Prizmic, a teenage qualifier ranked 187 in the world, he is unlikely to be losing much sleep over the wrist injury he suffered in last week’s shock United Cup defeat to Australia’s Alex De Minaur. That setback may have ended a 43-match winning streak on Australian soil, but injury and adversity have become almost par for the course for Djokovic, who won the title with an abdominal tear in 2021 and shrugged off the furore that erupted last year after his father, Srdjan, posed for photographs with pro-Putin supporters.
“My wrist is good,” says Djokovic. “I had time, from the last match against De Minaur in the United Cup to my first match here, to recover. I’ve been training well. Practice sessions pain-free so far. It’s good. It’s all looking good. Let’s see how it goes.
“I’m just hoping I can start the season in a way that I have been starting most of my seasons throughout my career: with a win here in Australia, in Melbourne. My favourite place, no doubt the court where I’ve done great things and achieved my greatest grand slam results.
“I hope that I’m going to be able to, if not play at the level that I did last year, then be very close to that, because that was one of the best tennis levels I’ve ever played here in Australia.”
A potentially challenging draw may well require Djokovic to reach such heights again. Andy Murray, his victim in four finals between 2010 and 2016, is a potential third-round opponent, as is the French veteran Gaël Monfils. All eyes would then be on a projected last-16 meeting with Ben Shelton, especially after the frosty conclusion to their US Open semi-final last year, when Djokovic mimicked the 21-year-old American’s signature “hang up the phone” celebration. Should the seedings hold, Stefanos Tsitsipas would then await in what would be a repeat of last year’s final – although first the Greek seventh seed must survive an eagerly anticipated opener against Matteo Berrettini.
From there, things could get complicated. Djokovic has never lost an Australian Open semi-final, but then again he had never lost to Jannik Sinner either, until two months ago. Sinner has since won two of their three singles meetings, first in the group stage of the ATP Finals, where Djokovic later exacted revenge to claim a record-equalling seventh title, and then at the Davis Cup, where the 22-year-old saved three match points to haul Italy level before partnering Lorenzo Sonego to a decisive doubles victory over Djokovic and Miomir Kecmanovic.
Those performances, and the decisive manner in which he subsequently led his country to victory over Australia in the final – crushing De Minaur, a possible fourth-round opponent in Melbourne, for the loss of just three games – have created a wave of expectation around Sinner going into the season’s first slam. Beaten by Djokovic in the first major semi-final of his career at last summer’s Wimbledon, is the rangy Italian ready to go a step further at the Australian Open?
“Obviously, it’s tough to say how the season will go,” says Sinner, whose opener against Botic van de Zandschulp on Sunday will be his first match of 2024. “At the end of the year, I played really good. I have still the confidence inside me, for sure.
“In the other way, every season is different. Every tournament is different.”
It is not only Djokovic against whom Sinner has made inroads. A first win in seven meetings with Daniil Medvedev last October in Beijing was rapidly followed by victories over the Russian in Vienna and Turin, and he has also won his two most recent jousts with Alcaraz. The challenge now will be to translate the knowledge that he can beat the three men seeded above him into the hard currency of grand slam success.
“Mindset is a key point in our sport,” says Sinner. “It gives you a good feeling when you lose so many times and then you win finally, because it shows the progress you’re making as a player.
“With Daniil, for example, I lost I think six times in a row, then I figured out that I can win against him if I play some good tennis. So let’s see. The mental part is really important. You always have to believe in yourself.”
Neither Medvedev nor Alcaraz should want in that department. Both men know what it is to defeat Djokovic in a grand slam final, Medvedev having done so at the 2021 US Open to deny the Serb a calendar-year grand slam, while Alcaraz consigned the Serb to his only loss at the majors last year, prevailing in an epic Wimbledon final.
The Spaniard, who starts against Richard Gasquet and could face perennial thorn-in-the-side Tommy Paul ahead of a quarter-final against Alexander Zverev, who has won four of their seven previous meetings, would seem to have the trickier draw of the pair. For Medvedev, potential dangers lurk in the form of Felix Auger-Aliassime, who led him by two sets to love in the quarter-finals two years ago, Grigor Dimitrov, whose resurgent form continued as he lifted the Brisbane title last week, and Holger Rune, the eighth-seeded Dane whom he is seeded to face in the last eight.
Should Alcaraz and Medvedev keep their anticipated semi-final appointment, it would be their third consecutive meeting at that stage of a slam. The Spaniard prevailed at Wimbledon, while Medvedev ended the younger man’s title defence at Flushing Meadows. Like Sinner, neither elected to play a warm-up event, preferring instead to take a longer off-season break. That makes it impossible to gauge their form but, should they cross paths, Alcaraz would no doubt take heart from his group-stage win over the Russian at the ATP Finals. By that stage, the relish he takes in facing Djokovic could also be a factor.
“It’s an extra motivation for me,” says Alcaraz of the Serb’s traditional dominance at Melbourne Park. “I’m an ambitious guy. I always want to play against the best players in the world to see what my level is.
“Obviously, it’s a good test, playing against [Djokovic] in the tournament that he’s almost unbeaten [at]. I [am] looking for reaching the final, and hopefully playing a final against him. It would be great, obviously. Knowing those stats, it’s an extra motivation, for sure.”
Last summer, in the second chapter of a four-part rivalry that defined the season, Alcaraz ended a decade of dominance by Djokovic on Wimbledon’s Centre Court. Could he be the man to end the Serb’s Australian Open hegemony? As Djokovic himself has shown, the absence of fear is half the battle.
Semi-finals: Djokovic to defeat Sinner; Alcaraz to defeat Rune.
Final: Djokovic to defeat Alcaraz.