Two days from the start of the Australian Open, Iga Swiatek is in problem-solving mode. Happily, though, the challenge does not involve a late injury or a misfiring stroke. The Polish world No 1 is battling a space robot.
“It’s pretty small,” says Swiatek. “I think a couple of days and I’ll be done with it.”
Lest you should imagine the world No 1 has gone intergalactic in her quest for tennis domination, the robot in question is made of Lego, for whom Swiatek recently became a brand ambassador in her native Poland. It seems the perfect marriage of player and product. The benefits associated with constructing Lego models include improved analytical thinking, increased mental and emotional resilience, and reduced stress. Swiatek, who first began using Lego during the pandemic at the suggestion of her psychologist, Daria Abramowicz, will need those qualities in spades if she is to navigate a draw that could pit her against five grand slam champions.
First up is Sofia Kenin, the champion at Melbourne Park in 2020 and the player Swiatek defeated in the French Open final later the same year to win the first of her four grand slam titles. The winner of that match will face either Angelique Kerber, another former champion, or Danielle Collins, who defeated Swiatek in the semi-finals two years ago. Looking further ahead, the top seed could face Elina Svitolina and Jelena Ostapenko, who respectively defeated her at Wimbledon and the US Open last year, before potential showdowns with Elena Rybakina, the world No 3 and former Wimbledon champion, and Aryna Sabalenka, the defending champion and second seed.
It is quite the itinerary, yet Swiatek has reasons to feel confident as she attempts to banish memories of last year’s fourth-round defeat to Rybakina. Unbeaten in singles since late September, the 22-year-old arrives in Melbourne on a 16-match winning streak. Her net game, serve and backhand slice have all benefited from technical improvements, increasing her tactical options. Above all, there is an air of renewed calmness and belief about Swiatek – as might be expected following the run that saw her finish last season with titles at the China Open and WTA Finals, where she wrested back the No 1 ranking from Sabalenka with the final ball of the season.
After a semi-final run at Melbourne Park two years ago that came somewhat out of the blue, Swiatek has never looked readier to challenge for a first Australian Open title. She has carried her devastating form into the new year and performed outstandingly at the United Cup, where she claimed singles wins over Beatriz Haddad Maia, Sara Sorribes Tormo, Qinwen Zheng, Caroline Garcia and Kerber.
“It was nice to play some high-quality matches against the top players,” says Swiatek of her role in Poland’s progress to the final of the mixed-team event. “I just realised that I’m feeling pretty confident, a little bit better than last year. Hopefully this feeling is going to stay with me.”
Rybakina, whose three wins in four career meetings with Swiatek all came in 2023, will be hoping otherwise. Like Swiatek, the 24-year-old Kazakhstani has started the season on a tear, claiming the title in Brisbane last week with a resounding 6-0, 6-3 victory over Sabalenka in the final. That win completed an impressive week’s work for the 24-year-old, whose five matches spanned a combined total of less than five hours.
Another area in which Rybakina has emulated Swiatek is with her improved effectiveness in the forecourt, where she is moving more fluidly and volleying with greater consistency and precision as a result. She will need to hit the ground running in a first-round blockbuster against Karolina Pliskova if she is to make a projected quarter-final against Jessica Pegula, the fifth seed, but Rybakina is widely expected to dispute favouritism with Swiatek in Melbourne, this week’s quarter-final loss to Liudmila Samsonova in Adelaide notwithstanding.
“She dropped, what, 15 games in five matches to open the season? She’s been serving great. After losing the final last year, she’ll be super motivated. So, I think for me, she’s the favourite right now,” Martina Navratilova told the WTA.
“The surface suits her better than Swiatek, and she’s got to have a lot of confidence about the way she played, dominating and being healthy. It’s between Swiatek and Rybakina.”
Sabalenka will have other ideas. The Belarusian looked typically formidable in Brisbane before facing Rybakina, dropping just 15 games in four matches as she dismantled Lucia Bronzetti, Zhu Lin, Daria Kasatkina and Victoria Azarenka. It remains to be seen whether her confidence has been affected by the one-sided nature of her defeat in the final, which bore echoes of a similarly emphatic loss to Swiatek at the WTA Finals, but Sabalenka was in chipper mood as she contemplated her title defence in Melbourne.
“Everything worked in pre-season, everything worked in the matches,” says the 25-year-old. “That’s what we are happy with. Even though the final [against Rybakina] didn’t go well, we still had another week to work on those mistakes and prepare myself as good as I can for Melbourne.”
Sabalenka will open her challenge against Germany’s Ella Seidel, an 18-year-old qualifier ranked 172. From there, Russia’s Liudmila Samsonova, the 13th seed, and Barbora Krejcikova, seeded ninth, appear the most obvious obstacles between the Belarusian and a projected quarter-final meeting with Ons Jabeur, the gifted Tunisian who denied her a place in the Wimbledon final last summer. If the seedings hold, Sabalenka would then have the chance to avenge her defeat to Coco Gauff in last year’s US Open final – a result that the American teenager, who opens against Slovakia’s Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, insists she has already all but forgotten.
“For me, the only thing I will try to remember from that slam is just the way that I won,” says Gauff, seeded fourth, who is projected to face Maria Sakkari in the quarter-finals. “It wasn’t my best tennis. It was more so the mental fire. I had some gutty matches.
“I think that confidence will bring me into the Australian Open this year, probably even more slams for the rest of the season.”
With the returning Naomi Osaka, twice the champion in Melbourne, set to face Caroline Garcia, the 16th seed – and Caroline Wozniacki, the 2018 champion, up against Magda Linette, the 20th-seeded Pole – Gauff’s quarter is arguably the most difficult to call. Osaka performed impressively on her return from maternity leave in Brisbane, defeating Tamara Korpatsch in straight sets before losing a tight match against Pliskova.
“Just being able to hit on Rod Laver, I guess look up at the sky and kind of just realise I’ve been able to win twice here,” says Osaka, attempting to explain the sense of nostalgia she feels on her return to Melbourne Park. “I would love to do it again.”
So too would Wozniacki, who made the last 16 of the US Open last September, extending Gauff to a decider in her first appearance at a major in three years. Either of the former world No 1s could make a deep run if they establish momentum.
No such “ifs” surround the form of Swiatek and Rybkina, however, and the smart money remains on the champion emerging from the top half of the draw.
Semi-finals: Swiatek to defeat Rybakina; Sabalenka to defeat Gauff.
Final: Swiatek to defeat Sabalenka.