Statistics show that when the game’s leading men win the opening set, they almost invariably go on to claim the spoils. The list of players with the best record after taking the opener reads like a who’s who of the modern game. Leading the table, inevitably, is Novak Djokovic, who has lost just 37 of the 889 ATP Tour matches in which he has won the first set. Rafael Nadal comes in a close second, with 909 wins to 48 losses, followed by Bjorn Borg (574-37), Andy Murray (573-41) and Roger Federer (1111-81). The moral of the story is clear: you fall behind against the sport’s best at your peril.
By that reckoning, it should have taken Daniil Medvedev all of seven minutes to book his place in the last eight at Indian Wells at the expense of Grigor Dimitrov. That was how long the top seed required to break the Bulgarian’s serve in the opening game of the match, laying the foundations for a one-set advantage that, when he broke once again at the start of the second, looked certain to be decisive.
Sure, stuff happened after that first game. There were rallies, lots of them, the most important of which were won by Medvedev. There was some gorgeous shot-making from Dimitrov, as there always is, most notably an improvised half volley, hit from behind his back and through his legs, that surprised the Russian into volleying wide early in the second set. But Medvedev, the world No 2, has been virtually invincible over the course of the North American hard court swing, winning the Toronto Masters and reaching the semi-finals in Cincinnati before claiming the biggest prize of all at the US Open. With the opening set in the bag, he seemed to be coasting to victory, imperious, unassailable.
There are, however, lies, damned lies and statistics. A talent like Dimitrov’s doesn’t bow to numerical diktats – often it doesn’t bow to the diktats of Dimitrov himself – and, while it is true that semi-final appearances at three of the four slams and a solitary ATP World Tour Finals trophy are hardly achievements commensurate with his lavish talent, the world No 28 remains eminently capable of troubling the world’s best.
Trouble Medvedev he did, helped along by a spectacular implosion on the part of the Russian, whose game inexplicably and comprehensively deserted him as he stood two games from victory. So completely did the Russian buckle that, from a set and 4-1 up, he lost 10 of the next 11 games, including a sequence of eight games in a row. Statistical likelihood offers no protection against an inspired opponent or a misfiring serve.
“He definitely flipped the switch,” said Medvedev of the uptick in Dimitrov’s game that carried the Bulgarian to a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 victory. “Talking about myself, I did become a little more tired maybe. At the same time, it’s not that I started missing everything and like really playing bad. I still maintained some level, so many matches it would be enough to finish the match.
“About Grigor, I have not much to say. He played the second part of the match better than anybody did against me in US Open that I won. Playing this level, I don’t see him losing to anybody, but let’s see the result.”
Trailing 4-1 in the decider, Medvedev’s frustration boiled over. He slammed his racket furiously into the court, shattering the frame and earning a code violation for his troubles. His displeasure, however, was entirely understandable. Having made 69% of his first serves in the opening set, the Muscovite’s success rate fell to just 28% in the second. As the unforced errors mounted, so the belief and consistency seemed to drain from his game. When he finally ballooned a forehand long on match point, it felt like a merciful release.
Dimitrov’s excellence aside, Medvedev identified the slow conditions and switch to a daytime slot as the determining factors in his defeat. “I don’t remember myself losing four service games ever on hard courts. That shows how slow this court is, and the conditions – more like clay, I would say, which I don’t like – because to lose serve four times is just unacceptable. That’s why I lost the [second] set.
“I knew that during the day, [it would be] much tougher to control the ball for me, especially on the serve. That’s what we saw in some moments I couldn’t pass my first serve. That’s why I was asking to play at night, but this time it was not possible because I had a day off where other guys played yesterday, and were supposed to play today, so they were playing late at night. That’s completely normal, but I knew it’s not going to advantage me.”
While the defeat ends a nine-match winning streak for Medvedev, Dimitrov can reflect with satisfaction on a victory that, from a set and a double break down against the tour’s hottest player, should not have been possible.
“Impossible until possible, I guess” said Dimitrov, who will face Hubert Hurkacz, the eighth seed, in his first Masters series quarter-final of the season. “He’s such a tough competitor. Over the past year and a half I played him a few times already and I wasn’t able to find a way against him. But today, I don’t know, I just felt something at 1-4. I just, like, calmed myself down a little bit and started taking better decisions.
“He’s been the guy that has been playing the best out of everyone and always finding a way,” Dimitrov later added. “It was a great, great match for me to win. But that’s not the end, that’s just another match.
“I’ve got to stay focused and look [at] what’s ahead of me.”
What lies ahead is Hurkacz, who ran out a 6-1, 6-3 winner against Medvedev’s compatriot Aslan Karatsev.
Argentina’s Diego Schwartzman followed up his three-set win over Britain’s Dan Evans with a 6-3, 6-3 victory against Casper Ruud, the sixth seed. Schwartzman will now face British opposition for the second time in three matches after Cameron Norrie, the world No 26, ousted Tommy Paul of the US 6-4, 4-6, 6-2.
Taylor Fritz maintained domestic interest in the tournament with a 6-4, 6-3 win over Italy’s Jannik Sinner, the 10th seed. Fritz was joined in the quarter-finals by Nikolaz Basilashvili, the 29th seed, who beat Olympic finalist Karen Khachanov 6-4 7-6 (8-6).