The clay is his domain, just as the air is the bird’s, and water that of the fish. Okay, so that wasn’t exactly what Baudelaire wrote. But then the French poet had never seen Rafael Nadal play at Roland Garros.
To observe Nadal at work on Court Philippe Chatrier from close quarters has been, for the better part of two decades, one of sport’s most wondrous spectacles. The Spaniard’s geometric mastery of an arena Gustavo Kuerten once compared to the Maracanã has been absolute, his gliding athleticism shrinking the length and breadth of the court even as his gravity-defying topspin left his opponents competing at an altitude where few have been able to breathe comfortably.
In the absence of the injured 14-time champion, it will inevitably be a Roland Garros like no other. Or rather, no other since 2004, when an ankle injury postponed Nadal’s Roland Garros debut for a season. The winner that year? Gaston Gaudio, a 25-year-old Argentinian ranked 44th in the world who had never previously been beyond the fourth round of a grand slam, and would never do so again. While it is hard to envisage anything so improbable happening this time around, the men’s draw remains the most open since Nadal’s French Open hegemony began.
First quarter
Until the end of last month, the first port of call in any discussion about the identity of Nadal’s successor would have been two-time champion Novak Djokovic. That, though, was before Carlos Alcaraz played his opening match against Emil Ruusuvuori in Rome, earning the handful of points he required to displace Djokovic as world No 1 and ensure he would arrive in Paris as the top seed. Could Alcaraz translate that numerical superiority into a first victory in the 16th arrondissement? It would provide the most poetic of storylines, a seamless transition from one intense, dynamic Spanish champion to another – and there are plenty of reasons to believe it could happen.
The most obvious is form: Alcaraz has lost only three of his 33 matches this season and has been the standout player of the European clay-court swing, mounting successful title defences in Barcelona and Madrid. Even an early loss to Hungarian qualifier Fabian Marozsan in Rome feels like a blessing in disguise, leaving the 20-year-old rested and ready in advance of his opening match against another qualifier, Italy’s Flavio Cobolli.
“I took some days off,” said Alcaraz. “Doing nothing, nothing, just chilling. Been with family, friends.
“[Then] I had like five days practising in the academy at home. That is really helpful for me, you know, to be away from tournaments a little bit, have more intensity [in] practice.”
Alcaraz could face Denis Shapovalov in the third round before a meeting with either Britain’s Cameron Norrie, who defeated him on clay in the Rio Open final three months ago, or the gifted Italian Lorenzo Musetti in the fourth, who beat him last summer in the final of Hamburg. Stefanos Tsitsipas, the finalist of two years ago, could await in the last eight, before a potential blockbuster against Djokovic, who has slipped to third in the rankings following Daniil Medvedev’s unexpected title run at the Italian Open.
It is hardly the kindest of draws, but Alcaraz demonstrated his ability to withstand the mental and physical demands of a grand slam fortnight at last year’s US Open, where he saved a match point against Jannik Sinner in the quarter-finals either side of navigating similarly demanding five-set epics against Marin Cilic and Frances Tiafoe. It also bodes well that he was able to cope with the magnified pressure in New York, where he faced Casper Ruud in the final with a first major title and the world No 1 ranking on the line.
At Flushing Meadows, Alcaraz made good on his promise to “take the lesson” from his experience in Paris three months earlier, where he lost to an inspired Alexander Zverev in the last eight after being touted as a title favourite alongside Nadal and Djokovic following his wins over them in Madrid. The hype surrounding Alcaraz on that occasion can hardly have helped, but now he returns as a grand slam champion and world No 1. It is hard to imagine a similar slip-up this time around.
Second quarter
No one has more to gain from Nadal’s absence than Djokovic, who would move ahead of his great rival for the first time were he to win a men’s record 23rd major in Paris. Yet it is difficult to know what to make of the 36-year-old’s prospects as he prepares to open his campaign against Aleksandar Kovacevic, a 24-year-old from the United States ranked 114th.
Djokovic traditionally takes time to find his feet on clay, but this year he has yet to establish any meaningful momentum ahead of Roland Garros. Beyond the protective sleeve he wore on his right arm, there was no obvious cause for alarm when he lost to Musetti in the last-16 of Monte Carlo. But the straight-sets reverse that followed against Dusan Lajovic in Banja Luka, his first defeat to a fellow Serb in 11 years, was a little more worrying, and his loss to Holger Rune in Rome will have stung.
Djokovic, a six-time champion at the Foro Italico, is normally moving smoothly through the gears by the time he reaches Rome. But he struggled to hit through the slow, heavy conditions and, in truth, he has not been close to his best since defeating Tsitsipas to win his 10th Australian Open in January. Even there, Djokovic’s physical state was under scrutiny after he picked up a hamstring injury, and the focus on his fitness has only intensified since he admitted last month that the right elbow on which he had surgery in 2018 was “not in an ideal state”. Reports that he suffered a shoulder problem in Rome before his win over Norrie have done little to allay misgivings about his physical condition.
Then again, it’s Djokovic, it’s a grand slam, and history is on the line. We know how this one normally ends.
“History being on the line is something that is very flattering and is very motivating, no doubt about it,” said Djokovic, who insists he has no physical issues going into the tournament.
“Obviously Nadal not playing here is a big loss for tennis, is a big loss for Roland Garros, because he’s by far the most successful player to play in this tournament in history.
“So of course it opens up a chance and opportunity for the rest of us to try to get a title, because whenever he plays he’s an absolute favourite here – or any clay court tournament, for that matter.”
A possible third-round meeting with either Spain’s Alejandro Davidovich Fokina or Marco Cecchinato of Italy, who stunned him in the quarter-finals five years ago, should confirm whether Djokovic is as fit as he says he is ahead of a projected quarter-final against Andrey Rublev, the Monte Carlo champion.
The smart money is on a second career meeting between Djokovic and Alcaraz, with the winner a narrow favourite for the title.
Third quarter
If the top half of the draw holds promise of a tidy narrative, the lower half belongs to the disruptors. Few meet that description better than the sixth-seeded Rune, who has been barely less impressive than Alcaraz in recent weeks, reaching Masters finals in Monte Carlo and Rome either side of a title win in Munich. A projected quarter-final meeting with arch-rival Casper Ruud, against whom the Dane lost a spicy contest at the same stage last year, would add an extra layer of intrigue to Rune’s quest for a first major title.
“I didn’t send him a Christmas postcard and neither did he to me, so I’m not sure if we can say we are too close,” Ruud admitted before his three-set loss to Rune at the Italian Open last week.
Both men must pass tests before the latest episode of that Scandinavian drama can materialise.
Rune opens against Christopher Eubanks of the United States and is projected to face Taylor Fritz in round four, affording him an opportunity to avenge his loss to the Californian at the Miami Open earlier this year. That was on a hard court, of course, but the ninth-seeded Fritz is a threat on all surfaces these days, and he has shown how well he can play on clay by posting semi-final finishes in Monte Carlo and Munich.
Ruud, meanwhile, may have to get past Botic van de Zandschulp of the Netherlands, who held four championship points against Rune in the Munich final, and possibly Germany’s Jan-Lennard Struff, who pushed Alcaraz to a decider in the Madrid Open final.
Fourth quarter
Not so long ago, the idea of Daniil Medvedev contesting a Roland Garros semi-final would have seemed fanciful. Famously averse to clay, the Russian failed to advance beyond the opening round in his first four visits to Paris, with a quarter-final run two years ago his best result to date. But as his wildly improbable victory in Rome confirmed, the worm appears to be turning.
Medvedev has quite simply been a winning machine since the Australian Open, claiming titles in Rotterdam, Qatar, Dubai and Miami and Rome. That kind of run does wonders for the confidence, and the fact that the 27-year-old was able to go through clay-court performers of the calibre of Tsitsipas and Rune to win at the Foro Italico will hardly have diminished his burgeoning self-belief. Tellingly, though, he is taking nothing for granted.
“What happened in Rome was amazing,” said Medvedev, who will face Thiago Seyboth Wild, a Brazilian qualifier ranked 172, in the opening round. “I for sure maybe have more expectation than I usually had in Roland Garros.
“But I know that it’s also tricky and you have to kind of use this confidence, but not get cocky, if we can say, because that’s where the danger is.”
Danger also lurks in the form of Jannik Sinner, the Italian eighth seed and a projected quarter-final opponent. Yet Medvedev has won all six of his previous meetings with Sinner, and has a barely less encouraging recent record against Alexander Zverev, a possible last-16 opponent. Zverev, a semi-finalist in Paris a year ago but beaten by Medvedev in Monte Carlo and Rome, is seeded 22nd this time as he continues his comeback from the horrific ankle injury he suffered against Nadal last summer.
Speaking of Nadal, Medvedev acknowledges that Roland Garros will not be the same in his absence, although he hopes to make the most of the opportunity.
“The tournament is for sure going to feel different,” said Medvedev. “Every two days before, you could watch Rafa play on TV because they would show him, for sure. He would play on centre court.
“This year, it’s not going to be the same. Without him [there] might be a new winner, who knows? With him it was a little – or a lot – less chances for this. So it’s definitely different.”
Just how different, we shall see.