Having shown that she can dominate, the challenge now for Iga Swiatek is to prove she can perform with her back to wall.
This time last year, Swiatek arrived at Roland Garros deep into a 37-match winning streak that would reach its zenith with a second title in three years on the Parisian clay. Twelve months on, things are less straightforward.
Aryna Sabalenka defeated Swiatek in the Madrid Open final earlier this month and has an opportunity to displace her at the top of the rankings over the next fortnight. Elena Rybakina, the Wimbledon champion, beat Swiatek at the Australian Open and in Indian Wells before the Pole was forced to retire with a thigh injury early in the deciding set of their recent quarter-final meeting in Rome.
At no stage since she ascended to world No 1 last year has Swiatek looked more vulnerable. In many ways, she has only herself to blame. Swiatek has set the bar so high that her rivals have faced a stark choice between redoubling their efforts or being left for dust. Sabalenka has spoken of how the challenge of facing Swiatek drove her on during a gruelling training block last summer.
“I remember all those sprints and running workouts,” said Sabalenka after winning her second title in three years in Madrid.
“It was really tough for me, but I kept thinking, ‘If you want to beat Iga you have to keep running, you have to keep pushing yourself.’
“That’s why I respect her a lot, and that’s why I’m saying that what she’s done in tennis motivates me a lot.”
It may also explain why Sabalenka, who began the season by defeating Rybakina in the Australian Open final to claim her first grand slam title, is playing the finest tennis of her life. The Belarusian arrives in Paris with 29 wins from 34 outings this season, and a tour-leading three titles.
Barely behind her is Rybakina, who avenged her defeat at Melbourne Park with a straight-sets win over Sabalenka in the final of Indian Wells, and has likewise established herself as an all-surface threat after winning the first clay-court crown of her career in Rome.
Talk of the women’s game boasting a new “big three” to bear comparison with the Nadal-Djokovic-Federer axis is understandable, if perhaps a little premature given that they have a relatively modest five slams between them.
“They’ve kind of separated themselves a little bit from the rest of the pack,” said Jessica Pegula, the world No 3. “It just comes with the confidence of having a lot of big results and breaking through.”
Swiatek nonetheless remains the pre-eminent force on clay and, assuming she is fit, the 21-year-old will be the player to beat. No player on the women’s side knows the course and distance better, and the defending champion is unlikely to be distracted by the threat to her No 1 ranking, which will pass to Sabalenka should she fail to make the last eight.
“I didn’t even know about that,” said Swiatek. “No problem. It doesn’t change a lot for me.”
What could change things, for both Swiatek and her two closest rivals, is a draw strewn with potential pitfalls.
First quarter
Swiatek opens against Cristina Bucsa, the Moldovan world No 70. The good news is that she has declared herself fit.
“I’m still recovering from the thigh injury, but I’ll be good for my first round,” she said on the eve of the tournament.
Were Swiatek to be dethroned by Marie Bouzkova, the nearest seed in her section of the draw, it would rank as an upset for the ages. The same cannot be said of a potential fourth-round meeting with Barbara Krejcikova, the champion of two years ago. The Czech 13th seed has won their two most recent meetings, in Dubai and Ostrava, and also held match points in a third, in Rome in 2021.
Swiatek has been particularly discomfited by Krejcikova’s ability to take the ball early and redirect it into the corners with pinpoint accuracy. If the pair meet for a fifth time, the onus will be on the top seed’s coach, Tomasz Wiktorowski, to come up with a sound tactical plan.
Assuming the seedings hold, the quarter-finals would bring a repeat of last year’s championship match against Coco Gauff, the sixth seed. The 19-year-old American has yet to win a set in six meetings with Swiatek, and a modest clay-court season so far – she has won just three times in half a dozen matches, falling to Anastasia Potapova in Stuttgart, Paula Badosa in Madrid and Bouzkova in Rome –suggests she would have her work cut out to alter that statistic.
The semi-finals, meanwhile, promise a swift reunion with Rybakina in a match that will be eagerly anticipated after the Kazakh fought back from a set and a break down to level in Rome before Swiatek retired.
Second quarter
If Krejcikova threatens to cast a shadow over Swiatek’s progress, a potential fly in the ointment for Rybakina is Ons Jabeur. The Tunisian began the clay-court swing on a tear, winning in Charleston before reaching the final of Stuttgart, where she was forced to retire with a torn calf muscle.
Upset by Magda Linette in the opening round of Roland Garros last year, when she was touted as a title contender after winning the Madrid Open, Jabeur will be eager to make amends this time around. Seeded seventh, she is expected to meet Rybakina, her conqueror in last summer’s Wimbledon final, in the last eight.
First, though, Rybakina will need to navigate her opener against 16-year-old Brenda Fruhvirtova of the Czech Republic. Linda Noskova, another gifted Czech teenager, could await in round two, with either Beatriz Haddad Maia or Ekaterina Alexandrova, who extended Swiatek to a third set in Madrid, potential last-16 opponents.
In truth, though, the steely but understated 23-year-old is no more likely to lose sleep over who she will face from one round to the next than does over talk of a big three. A quarter-finalist two years ago, Rybakina clearly believes she can go deeper this time.
“It’s impossible to play every time good and feel great, but I feel for sure, no matter the surface, if I play my best, I can beat anyone,” said Rybakina.
She may yet beat everyone.
Third quarter
A grand slam breakthrough feels long overdue for Pegula, who has never made the last four at a major despite reaching five quarter-finals. If the 29-year-old succeeds in altering that statistic in Paris, she will have earned it.
A first-round meeting with fellow American, former world No 7 and 2022 Australian Open finalist Danielle Collins looks tough enough. But Pegula would then face either home favourite Alizé Cornet or Camila Giorgi, who has pushed her to a deciding set on three occasions over the past year, ahead of a projected quarter-final against Maria Sakkari. Karolina Muchova, who has won both her tour-level meetings with Sakkari and faces the Greek eighth seed in round one, may have a say in whether that meeting materialises.
Also lurking in this quarter is Belinda Bencic, the 12th seed and reigning Olympic champion. But the player to keep an eye on may just be Russia’s Anastasia Potapova, who reached the semi-finals in Stuttgart and extended Veronika Kudermetova, the world No 9, to a third set in both Madrid and Rome.
Fourth quarter
As with Carlos Alcaraz, an early defeat in Rome held a silver lining for Sabalenka, allowing her time to recover after reaching two straight clay-court finals. Seeded second, she arrives in Paris well aware of what is on the line, but is trying not to dwell on the fact that victory at a second straight slam would guarantee her the No 1 ranking.
“Every time I’m focusing on something like that – like points, ranking, results – I’m not playing my best,” said Sabalenka, who faces Ukraine’s Marta Kostyuk, the world No 28, in the opening round.
“So I’m trying to focus on myself, on my game, and make sure I bring my best tennis. Then we will see, after these couple of weeks, what’s going to happen.”
Such caution seems well advised, given that Sabalenka has yet to reach the fourth round at Roland Garros in five previous attempts. A potential quarter-final against Caroline Garcia, who denied her the WTA Finals crown last year, would offer a stern test of her title credentials, given the raucous support the Frenchwoman could expect to enjoy.
Also present in a tough lower section are former champion Jelena Ostapenko, former finalist Marketa Vondrousova, Italy’s Martina Trevisan, who reached the semi-finals last year, and the ninth-seeded Kasatkina.
Sabalenka has the beating of them all. Whether she can see off Swiatek on her favourite court is another matter.