Two weeks after Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka contested a final of rare brilliance and drama at the Madrid Open, expectations were high as the pair locked horns again at the Foro Italico.
It has been almost a quarter of a century since the world’s top two women faced each other twice in a fortnight, while only Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova have disputed two WTA 1000 finals in a row since the format’s inception 15 years ago. With Swiatek’s thrilling comeback from three championship points down at the Caja Mágica fresh in the memory, the common consensus was that another historic showdown was in the offing.
Yet that heightened sense of anticipation ignored the fact that we had been here before. Two years ago, Sabalenka came away from a semi-final beatdown against Swiatek on the same stage with just three games. And while the 26-year-old Belarusian has become a far more dangerous player in the interim, the slow red clay of Stadio Centrale does not complement her powerhouse game in the same way as the relatively quick conditions at altitude in Madrid.
As Swiatek brought her peerless athleticism and mental steel to bear, their previous meeting in Rome proved the more pertinent reference point, the Polish world No 1 easing to a 6-2, 6-3 victory to claim her third Italian Open title in four years.
“I was playing well and solid,” said Swiatek, who has now won all but four of her 25 tour-level finals. “I used my chances. For sure this match looked a little bit differently than in Madrid. I felt like I’m putting a lot of pressure. I just continued doing that throughout the whole match.
“I’m chilled out maybe compared to Madrid after the final, because obviously that final was so surreal. [This] is a little bit different. But it doesn’t change the fact that I’m really proud of myself and really happy.”
Swiatek insisted beforehand that the events of a fortnight ago would have no bearing on the outcome, but that was not altogether true. After completing the first half of the Madrid-Rome double, a feat which only Dinara Safina and Williams have accomplished previously, the 22-year-old said she would take valuable lessons from her win, not least the knowledge that she could beat top players even when below her best. Against Sabalenka, she did precisely that.
Swiatek’s first serve, outstanding against Sabalenka a fortnight ago, proved more elusive this time around. For all her early dominance, she made just 39% of her first deliveries in the opener, and only 54% overall. Yet she saved all seven of the break points she faced, five of which arrived in quick succession early in the second set as Sabalenka came out fighting after a nervous, error-strewn start to the match. Swiatek snuffed out three of those five opportunities with 118mph-plus first serves, and defended a fourth with a deep, brave second delivery that set up a rifled backhand winner. Only once did Sabalenka get a look-in, establishing control with a deep return only to net a forehand.
It was clutch serving from the Pole, whose ability to elevate her game at key moments has never been more apparent. She showed similar resilience under pressure against Yulia Putintseva, Angelique Kerber and Coco Gauff, and while she remains “humble and really focused on [doing] everything step by step”, she will arrive at Roland Garros, where she has won three times, with an aura of invincibility redolent of her childhood idol, Rafael Nadal. Her only defeat on red dirt this season came indoors against Elena Rybakina in Stuttgart last month, and in Rome she marched through the upper half of the draw without dropping set. After defeating Gauff, Swiatek explicitly attributed her burgeoning self-belief to her performance in the Madrid final.
“I think this match gave me confidence that I can win even though I’m not feeling the best way or I’m stressed at the beginning,” said Swiatek. “I can still get the score back.
“Maybe I’m less worried before matches because I know even if I’m going to be in trouble, I’ll be able to recover from it maybe if I’m going to work hard. This is the kind of feeling that I have.”
For Sabalenka, an eighth defeat in 11 meetings with the Pole brought her full circle. She arrived in Rome vowing to be more aggressive in the big moments against Swiatek; after committing 28 unforced errors, she left ruing her inconsistency and determined to find a better balance between defence and attack.
“Her movement is incredible,” said Sabalenka. “You always know that you have to build the point and you have to finish the point.
“I think that stayed in the back of my mind, and that’s why sometimes I tried to overhit balls, knowing she was going to get to it. I think that’s something I’m going to work [on] next week, try not to over-rush stuff, trust myself, my game, that I’m able to stay in the point as long as needed.”
As she acknowledged, however, Sabalenka can draw plenty of encouragement from her work over the past fortnight. She dealt with illness, injury, and near disaster in the fourth round, where she saved three match points against Elina Svitolina. She won convincingly against Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins to reach her maiden final in Rome, laying to rest memories of last year’s defeat to Sofia Kenin. And while she was undoubtedly overwrought and erratic in the early stages against Swiatek, she made a fight of it in the second set until her fate was sealed by a loose service game at 3-3.
“Even though I lost these two finals, I never focus on the past,” said Sabalenka. “No matter how many times I lose to the player, I know anyway if I’ll be there, I’ll be fighting.”
Whether that will be enough against Swiatek in Paris, for Sabalenka or anyone else, remains to be seen.