What’s in a number? As Daniil Medvedev ended Novak Djokovic’s 20-match winning streak with a 6-4, 6-4 victory in Dubai, the question felt pertinent.
This time last year, Medvedev was flying high at No 1 in the rankings while struggling to justify that status on court. Within a fortnight of supplanting Djokovic to become the world’s top player for the first time, the Russian relinquished his newfound status, crashing out in the third round of Indian Wells as a season-long hangover from his agonising Australian Open final defeat to Rafael Nadal began.
Now, barely a month after slipping to a four-year low of 12th, the Russian world No 7 is through to a third final in three weeks and, on this evidence, fast recapturing the kind of form that propelled him to glory at the US Open in 2021. Evidently numbers can be deceptive.
That point is further underlined by the curious fact that Medvedev has now won all but three of the eight matches he has played against Djokovic when the Serb was ranked No 1, yet has only five victories in their 14 meetings overall. Not that the 27-year-old is keeping score; any win over Djokovic is, after all, a good win.
“Every time I beat Novak is [an] amazing feeling,” said Medvedev, who will face his compatriot Andrey Rublev in Saturday’s final. “He’s probably the greatest tennis player of all time, or at least one of the two or one of the three.
“Of course, beating him in the US Open final was my best memory, because that’s my only slam. To beat someone like him in the final is just a dream come true and forever in my memories. In terms of this comparison, maybe this one is a little bit less, because it’s not the final, it’s semis.
“[But] every time it gives you an extra boost of confidence, like, ‘Wow, I was able to beat Novak, I can for sure beat anybody.’”
Medvedev’s victory, founded on near-flawless serving, tireless running and an uncharacteristically erratic performance from his opponent, broke a run of four straight defeats against Djokovic since his landmark triumph at Flushing Meadows. According to the ATP statistics, Djokovic committed just 14 unforced errors; the true number was surely closer to the 38 recorded by television statisticians. After an immaculate start on serve, the world No 1’s problems began in the fifth game, where he was broken after attempting one too many drop shots.
It was a strange tactical performance from the Serb, who seemed intent on disrupting Medvedev with slices, touch and frequent excursions to the net, but in the process did more to disturb his own rhythm. A badly misjudged overhead and a pair of missed backhand volleys soon cost Djokovic another service game and, although he quickly narrowed the deficit, drawing a backhand error from Medvedev to convert his only break point of the match, he was unable to prevent the Muscovite from serving out the opener. Once Djokovic had driven a forehand long to go a break down at the start of the second set, Medvedev would not be caught.
“In some decisive moments I just made an unforced error,” said Djokovic. “Kind of handed the win. At the same time, he deserved to win it. He was a better player in both sets.
“It’s unfortunate I had some really bad mistakes in the first set to give him the second break. But this is tennis. You learn from your mistakes and from the defeats, and hopefully next time I’ll be better.”
It was the first defeat Djokovic has suffered since losing last November’s Paris Masters final to Holger Rune. In the interim he won the ATP Finals for a sixth time, claimed a title in Adelaide, and extended his Australian Open hegemony with a 10th win. Yet the 22-time grand slam champion is unlikely to dwell on the end of his unbeaten run.
“I know that I didn’t play well in some decisive moments, but it was also due to his quality of tennis,” said Djokovic. “That’s it. We move on to the next challenge.”
With Djokovic still waiting to hear whether he will be able to enter the United States for next month’s Masters 1000 events in Indian Wells and Miami, it remains to be seen where that challenge will be.
What is clear, five days after Djokovic celebrated a record 378th week at No 1, is that the focus now shifts to whether Medvedev can follow up his wins in Rotterdam and Doha with victory in Dubai. If he is to extend his recent winning run to 14 straight matches, he will have to go through Rublev, the defending champion, who defeated Alexander Zverev 6-3, 7-6 (11-9).
One year after scrawling the message: “No war, please” on a TV camera lens in Dubai, Rublev was asked how he had been affected by the Ukraine war in the interim.
“You cannot act like nothing is happening because it’s horrible,” said Rublev after his first win over Zverev in six meetings. “It’s crazy that so many just normal citizens suffering, dying. It’s just not easy.
“It’s not easy that it’s happening in our time when we have all the mobile phones, Internet, social media. There is kids, they just want to do TikTok. In the end happens at the same time these things. It’s tough to just understand.
“Of course it’s affecting me. Doesn’t matter how [much] you try to do other stuff. The only thing I hope is that soon there is going to be peace in every country. Doesn’t matter where.
“I hope [there] is going to be peace in other countries where wars are happening now. It’s horrible in our time, this generation, that these things can happen.”