After a faltering start, Garbiñe Muguruza has been steadily gathering momentum at the WTA Finals in Guadalajara. When the Spaniard lost her opening match to Karolina Pliskova, struggling to bring the ball under her spell in the high-altitude conditions, qualification for the semi-finals looked an uphill struggle. Muguruza was drawn in a group that included not only Barbora Krejcikova, who had beaten her in controversial circumstances at the US Open, but also Anett Kontaveit, the standout player over the final phase of the season, who had eviscerated her three weeks earlier in Moscow.
That the former world No 1 now stands within one victory of claiming her biggest title in four years is testament to her self-belief. Muguruza has overcome every obstacle in her path, making the necessary adjustments to her game, battling back from a set down to defeat Krejcikova, and then bringing Kontaveit’s 12-match winning streak to a juddering halt with an impressive straight-sets win. Her resurgence continued in the semi-finals, where a near-flawless display of power tennis saw her prevail 6-3, 6-3 against Paula Badosa to become the first Spaniard to reach the title round since Aranxta-Sanchez Vicario in 1993, the same year she was born.
“I feel like I struggled in the first couple of matches,” reflected Muguruza. “One, I didn’t find the way. The other one, I did. All of those circumstances help you to find the way, the way to play here, to find your shots, to serve, to have a game plan. Because I struggled and went through the tough times, it’s like a little progression, you know?
“Sometimes it’s not like that. Sometimes it just gets worse. I feel like in this time it really helped me. Those first matches, two and a half hours on court fighting, trying to find a way, I think paid off today a little bit in terms of a feeling. I’m like, ‘Okay, I know the altitude by now. I’ve spent many hours on the court.’
“I managed to have a serve that works here in Guadalajara. But I think everything got better. Probably the serve, it’s a shot that it’s more tricky in altitude. I feel like in general my game, my shots, my serve, my movement, it’s improving match by match.”
No one will have felt that more keenly than Badosa, whose progress to the last four had been as serene as Muguruza’s was fraught. This match was supposed to mark the changing of the guard, the moment when Badosa – at 24, the younger woman by four years – came of age as the pre-eminent Spanish player. Instead, it was as though we had been transported to a parallel universe, one where it was Muguruza who had swaggered her way into the semi-finals and Badosa who had struggled to find her feet.
Muguruza was irresistible, breaking early in both sets as she resisted the temptation to go too big too soon, patiently playing her way into rallies with high-percentage shots before launching missiles into the corners whenever Badosa dropped the ball short. It was the same brand of blistering tennis that had propelled her to 19 wins in 23 matches at the start of the year, earning her the Dubai title as well as final appearances in Melbourne and Doha. We will never know what might have been had her season not been undermined by the left thigh injury she sustained in Charleston, as she made the spring transition from hard courts to clay. What is certain is that the Caracas-born Spaniard has drawn huge inspiration from the late decision to stage the WTA Finals in Mexico, where she has revelled in the Latin American vibe.
“[It’s] probably a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for me in my career to play a Masters in Mexico,” said Muguruza, who is guaranteed to end the year an No 3 in the rankings irrespective of the outcome in Wednesday’s final. “It’s a cocktail for me that’s super motivating. Every time I came here to Mexico, I always feel very welcome, very happy. The environment just clicks with me. Having a Masters played [in Mexico] this year, it was like, ‘Okay, Garbiñe, this is your opportunity. You have to give it your all, no matter [if] you win or lose. You have to get out of here and feel like, man, I gave all my energy.’ I think I’m doing that.
“The fact it’s in Latin America, it’s clearly something that I love… I do feel like here it’s different for me. I feel more at home. I feel more the culture. That really matters when you come to the Masters, the last tournament of the year, to have the stadium screaming and full of excited people.”
Badosa has engendered similar levels of passion among the Spanish-speaking crowd, and while the Indian Wells champion was clearly frustrated by her inability to reproduce her outstanding recent form, there is surely plenty more to come from her. Tipped as a potential future No 1, Badosa’s powerful all-court game, sinuous movement and frequently jaw-dropping defensive skills are a match for the best. It augurs well that, having cracked the top-10, she appreciates she will start next season with a target on her back and is already primed to prepare appropriately.
“I like to have quite different things, different games,” said Badosa. “I like to be aggressive, but as well I want to be a good defensive player. I have to work a little bit on everything. Mentally, I have to make another step because it’s not the same [now]. To start the year 70 like last year, now to start the year eighth, I will have [to deal with] a lot of expectations. Mentally it will be tough, because every player will want to beat me. I’ll have to make another step forward on that.”
She could do worse than take a leaf out of Maria Sakkari’s book. Like Badosa, the Greek has come of age this year, reaching the last four at Roland Garros and Flushing Meadows and establishing herself as a card-carrying member of the game’s elite. Sakkari fought tigerishly against Kontaveit, stubbornly refusing to wilt before an early barrage of immaculate shot-making from the Estonian. Once again, however, she was consigned to semi-final agony, Kontaveit earning a crucial break in the eighth game of the decider to set up a 6-1, 3-6, 6-3 victory. It was a Heraclean effort from the Greek, who was inconsolable in defeat.
“I just saw the finish line,” said Sakkari, who was broken to love after taking a 3-2 lead in the decider, and subsequently led 40-0 on serve at 4-3 only for Kontaveit to claim a second break. “Things went downhill. I was very close to taking that chance. I just wasted it. That’s why it hurts so much. It’s not that it was just bad luck, it’s that I threw away another chance. It hurts.”
Kontaveit, meanwhile, has her sights firmly on the possibility of a third successive title – and a fifth since she began her late-season surge in Cleveland, on the eve of the US Open. It has been a remarkable run, one that has seen her win 29 of her past 32 matches and enter the top 10 for the first time. Victory in what will be comfortably the biggest match of her life would elevate her to sixth in the rankings, and while Muguruza will no doubt draw strength from her group-stage win over the Estonian, Kontaveit will approach the challenge with understandable confidence.
“I feel like the last few months have really showed me that I can play really well, I can beat great players consistently,” said Kontaveit. “I think I sort of have this self-belief now. When I came here, of course, I had nothing to lose. Every time I step on the court, I still think I can win the match.”
That much was evident when the moment of crisis came in the third set against Sakkari. “When I went a break down, 3-2, I just managed to tell myself that if this is the last match of the season, then I might as well enjoy it. I feel like I got some freedom from that and just started playing better, and managed to turn that set around.”
It is a healthy attitude, one that Kontaveit says she will carry into the final, where she promises to heed the lessons from her defeat to Muguruza without dwelling on the negative.
“It’s a very exciting moment for me,” said the Estonian. “It’s my biggest final so far. I mean, I think I have a lot of self-belief and confidence. I’m really going to enjoy it out there and hopefully play a good match. I mean, I’m ready for whatever comes. I’m ready for the next challenge.
“I definitely have to clean up the unforced errors from the previous match. I think that’s the main thing. Just really fight and give my everything. We’ve played a couple of times in a very short period of time. I’m ready for a tough match. She’s played some great tennis. She’s beaten really good players. So have I. I’m really looking forward to this new challenge. It’s a new match. The previous matches, I think they don’t really matter if you have this new opportunity.”
It promises to be some finale.