History beckons for Rafael Nadal. Springtime in Paris always augurs well for the Spaniard, but this time around there is more at stake than just another opportunity to break records of his own making. A 14th victory in the French capital would take Nadal’s overall tally of majors to 21, nudging him ahead of Roger Federer on the all-time list and intensifying the perennial debate about the greatest player of all time.
That is not an accolade the humble Mallorcan would ever claim for himself, although he could be forgiven for wondering what he must do to get a decent draw at an event where he has accumulated a century of wins. Nadal is seeded third, in line with his world ranking, and has been thrust into the top half of the draw alongside Federer and Novak Djokovic, his arch rival and likely semi-final opponent if all goes according to plan. Not that he is complaining.
“I see it as normal,” said Nadal, who faces Australia’s Alexei Popyrin in the first round. “One player is almost 40, another is almost 35 and the other is 34. It seems logical that younger players climb the rankings. Whenever that happens you have these consequences. I’m not worried about it.”
Given that it is five years since he last beat Nadal on a clay court, perhaps it is Djokovic who should feel worried. While the world No 1 has been inexorably making his way to the final of the Belgrade Open, where he will play the Slovak qualifier Alex Molcan on Sunday, Nadal has been quietly steeling himself for the battles that lie ahead. After sparring with Casper Ruud at his academy in Manacor earlier in the week, the Spaniard arrived in the 16th arrondissement on Wednesday for the second time in seven months, following the rescheduling of last year’s event due to the pandemic. The thought of how many majors the defending champion might have accumulated by now if the chance to compete on clay usually came around so quickly must be the stuff of Djokovic’s nightmares.
Djokovic, of course, is chasing history of his own. Should the top seed repeat his 2016 title success to move just one slam behind Nadal and Federer, he would become the first man in the Open era to win every major twice. The Serb embraces such records. Earlier this year, when he overtook Federer to set a new landmark for the most weeks at No 1 in the men’s rankings, he celebrated exuberantly with fans gathered outside the Novak 1 restaurant in his native Belgrade. On Thursday, when he beat Federico Coria in the Belgrade Open to usurp Guillermo Vilas from fifth place on the list of most matches won in the Open era, he declared himself “really fulfilled and very joyful”. Were he to get his hands on the Coupe des Mousquetaires for a second time, extracting it from his grasp might require surgical intervention.
While each passing week seems to bring up a new milestone for Djokovic, his presence in the Serbian capital on the eve of a slam highlights the chequered nature of his preparations for Paris. Dan Evans’ adroit use of slices and drop shots did for the Serb in Monte Carlo, and a semi-final defeat to Russia’s Aslan Karatsev at the following week’s Serbia Open did little to improve the world No 1’s mood. A run to the final in Rome, where he was stopped by Nadal in three sets, marked the resumption of relatively normal service, but whether that performance was enough to erase the memory of last October’s 6-0, 6-2, 7-5 humbling by the Spaniard on Court Philippe Chatrier remains to be seen.
That said, Nadal too has shown signs of vulnerability. Andrey Rublev put paid to the Spaniard’s hopes of an 11th title in Monte Carlo, while the fifth-ranked Alexander Zverev derailed his tilt at a sixth Madrid Open. Those defeats were counterbalanced, however, by a 12th triumph at the Barcelona Open, where Nadal prevailed in three close sets against Stefanos Tsitsipas, and a 10th win at the Foro Italico, where he avenged the Zverev loss, moved level with Djokovic on 36 Masters 1000 titles and narrowed their career head-to-head to 28-29 in the Serb’s favour.
With Nadal and Djokovic lumped together in the top half of the draw, where Federer will need to find form quickly if he is to make an impression following his faltering return from a double bout of knee surgery, it is Tsitsipas who poses the greatest danger to the rest of the field. The Greek fifth seed, who has amassed a Tour-leading 33 match wins this year, set the tone for his clay-court campaign with an emotional victory in his adopted hometown of Monte Carlo, where he earned his first Masters 1000 crown at a venue where his mother, Julia Salnikova, had claimed a junior title four decades earlier. That result was followed by a run to the final in Barcelona, where Tsitsipas held a match point against Nadal, and a second title of the year in Lyon.
The Greek, beaten by Djokovic in the semi-finals last year, is not oblivious to the opportunity afforded by the absence of the big three on his path to what would be a first grand slam final. “Finally, for once,” he quipped on Friday. This relaxed disposition should serve Tsitsipas well as he begins his title challenge against the French veteran Jeremy Chardy. Nor will the Greek be unduly perturbed by the presence in his quarter of world No 2 Daniil Medvedev. The Russian has made no attempt to disguise his antipathy to clay – “There’s always bad bounces, you’re dirty after playing – I really don’t enjoy playing on clay,” he said in Monte Carlo – and has yet to win a match at Roland Garros in four attempts.
As for Dominic Thiem, much will much depend on his state of mind as he returns to the grand slam stage for the first time since taking a two-month break from the game. Has the fourth-ranked Austrian, twice a finalist in Paris, finally shaken off the physical and mental fatigue he seemed to suffer after the success of last year, when he won his maiden slam at the US Open?
Thiem has struggled with the restrictions imposed by the pandemic and, while a semi-final berth in Madrid seemed to offer encouragement in his pursuit of “the big goal of Roland Garros”, he described a straight-sets defeat to Cameron Norrie in Lyon as “a huge step back”. It is ironic, although hardly novel, that success should have subdued a player who so often looked hewn of granite even in defeat.
Thiem is seeded to face Alexander Zverev in the last eight, in what would be a repeat of their epic final in New York last September. The German, seeded sixth, will not be intimidated by that prospect. He beat Nadal en route to winning the Madrid Open and, having twice before made the quarter-finals in Paris, he will be eager to go further this time around.
Ultimately, though, all eyes will be on Rafa as he takes the most significant tilt at history of his storied career. Last autumn, the Spaniard arrived in Paris muttering discontentedly about the slow, cold conditions and the tournament’s switch to a less lively ball. He left with a 13th trophy. His rivals have been warned.