For Jessica Pegula, a season that began with rich promise is finishing in similar vein.
At the turn of the year, when Pegula demolished Iga Swiatek at the United Cup to claim the biggest win of her career, it felt like a seminal moment for the New Yorker. A cornerstone of the US team that went on to win the inaugural mixed team event, Pegula looked a shoo-in to advance beyond the last eight of a major for the first time at the ensuing Australian Open.
Things did not quite work out that way, the American falling in the quarter-finals at Melbourne Park for a third successive year. For now, the last eight remains her grand slam ceiling. Yet, for a player with a game to beat the best, that record feels ever more anomalous.
Pegula’s landmark win over Swiatek was no fluke. She scored another success against the Pole this autumn in Cincinnati, going on to win the second WTA 1000 title of her career, and on Tuesday evening in Cancún the 29-year-old offered another powerful reminder of her quality, snapping a four-match losing streak against Aryna Sabalenka, the Belarusian world No 1, to make the last four at the WTA Finals for the first time.
It was a milestone victory for Pegula, who failed to claim a win in six singles and doubles matches on her maiden appearance at the season-ending jamboree last year in Fort Worth. With an assured 6-4, 6-3 win, she not only ended a three-year barren spell against Sabalenka but also became the fourth American woman this century to notch up three wins against the No 1 player in the world in the same season, joining Serena Williams, Lindsay Davenport and Jennifer Capriati.
Last October, when asked about her prospects of winning a grand slam title after her maiden WTA 1000 title in Guadalajara, Pegula jokingly alluded to her quarter-final defeats against Swiatek at Roland Garros and the US Open. “As long as I don’t play Iga in the quarters, hopefully I’ll get there,” quipped the American. It was a throwaway comment and yet, given the largely one-sided nature of those defeats, there was more than a hint of gallows humour. Things are different now, though; once again, a big title feels within reach for Pegula.
“Even though I was a top player last year, I think I feel more comfortable playing [the world No 1] this year, I feel more confident,” she said. “I don’t think it feels such a big deal, and maybe that’s just because I’ve experienced it longer.
“I think last year, when I became top five, I felt maybe I psyched myself out a little bit. Not a lot, but just a little bit. You have a couple of thoughts in your head, if you really belong at that level. I was always good at beating everyone below me but it’s like, now you have to beat the one or two before you, and I think you put bigger emphasis on that.
“I think this year I’ve just not really cared, and I’ve just had more confidence in those matches. That’s why I think I’ve had some better top wins this year as far as beating No 1 players in the world, or [No] 2 or whatever it is – and in big moments too, like here, in Montreal and stuff like that. So I think that’s where I feel I’ve improved a little bit.”
For Sabalenka, whose efforts were undermined by 33 unforced errors, the defeat was not only a step backwards after Sunday’s thumping win over Maria Sakkari, but also a blow to her hopes of keeping Swiatek at bay in the race to claim the year-end No 1 ranking. A perfect group record would have consigned the Pole to second spot; instead, Sabalenka will now square off against Elena Rybakina, who claimed a 6-0, 6-7 (4-7), 7-6 (7-2) win over Maria Sakkari, with a semi-final place on the line for both women. The Belarusian has led criticism of the temporary playing surface and, while she hailed the quality of Pegula’s performance, she once again made her unhappiness with the conditions plain.
“I think this court fits her perfectly,” said Sabalenka. “The bounce is super low and I think she feels much more comfortable in these conditions. On this court, it’s like leather, you never know what’s going to happen, if the bounce will help you or play against you.
“I guess today was the day when it didn’t work well for me, but it’s OK. I still have a chance to pass the group, so I’m trying to stay strong and motivated.”
Sabalenka struggled to bring her haymaker forehand to bear in the early stages, with 11 of her 21 unforced errors in the first set coming off that wing. Pegula showed notable boldness, taking her returns on the rise, serving with consistency and penetration, and going toe-to-toe with the Australian Open champion in the baseline exchanges. Sabalenka roused herself late in both sets, narrowly failing to fight back from 5-2 down in the first and saving six match points in the second.
In truth, though, once Pegula had sealed the opener, the outcome felt almost inevitable: she is now unbeaten in 49 matches after winning the first set this season, and her steadiness of mind and stroke, and flat, penetrative ball-striking, seem tailor-made for the conditions. Pegula once again looks like she will take some stopping.