It will, inevitably, be heralded as a new dawn. Like Carlos Alcaraz’s audacious march to the Madrid Open title, which took in successive victories over Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune’s stunning victory over Djokovic in the Paris Masters final will be seized upon as further evidence that the old order is crumbling.
That the dynamic Dane is just 19, the same age as Alcaraz – whose exploits in the Spanish capital this spring were merely the prelude to his extraordinary run to the US Open title and No 1 ranking – only deepens the impression that change is afoot.
And it is, of course, although not at quite the accelerated rate some would have us believe. Djokovic and Nadal, who was beaten in his opening match by the 29th-ranked American Tommy Paul, may have fallen in Paris. But they still hold three of the four grand slams, Nadal winning at Melbourne Park and Roland Garros, Djokovic at Wimbledon. Take a step back, and not so very much has changed. Not yet.
We love to discern clear-cut patterns in sport, but thankfully it is invariably a messier and more unpredictable business than the prognosticators would have us believe. These days, little is heard from the well-informed who once claimed Nadal’s dodgy knees would bring an early end to his career, and that Federer’s 2012 Wimbledon victory would be his final slam.
Perhaps it would be less reductive to think in terms of continuity rather than change. It takes preternatural talent to do what Alcaraz and Rune have done this year, of course it does. Yet ability is only part of the equation. The game has always been littered with prodigiously gifted players who never fulfilled their potential. Some become household names nonetheless; most fall by the wayside long before they even make it that far. What really counts is the ability to marshal talent in the heat of competition; to navigate the mental peaks and troughs; to execute under pressure.
Champions play big tennis at big moments, and that is a quality that has defined the big four. The same trait characterised Alcaraz’s dramatic victories over Jannik Sinner, Frances Tiafoe and Casper Ruud at Flushing Meadows. And it was clearly discernible in Rune’s 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 victory over Djokovic on Sunday. Alacaraz and, increasingly, Rune, who has now won 19 of his past 21 matches – and defeated half the world’s top 10 in Paris-Bercy – are vying to join a lineage of serial champions. No wonder the Serb recognised in Rune a kindred spirit.
“I think he does have a lot of elements that remind me of myself when I was his age,” said Djokovic. “Just a very competitive spirit, very confident, going for the shots. Backhand, very solid backhand, great backhand. Dropshots, good return, mixing things up, coming to the net.
“He has improved a lot. We played last year in the US Open. Since then, his level is higher – two, three levels higher, for sure. So I’m sure that he’s going to keep going. He’s got big objectives and goals. Understandably so, because he’s really a player that has potential to reach great heights.”
That potential was evident in the determined manner Rune fought back from a set and a break down to level the contest before cancelling out another break early in the decider. It was no less apparent as he served for the title at 6-5, fending off six break points before a final, dipping forehand prised one last error out of Djokovic.
“I don’t think you can teach anyone to win against Novak,” said Rune’s coach, Patrick Mouratoglou. “You have to have something special and something extra, and he definitely has.
“He had a champion’s mindset from the start, and this is what struck me. He was very determined. He has so much self-confidence.
“He really believes in [his] success. His personality struck me more than anything else.”
Mouratoglou could as easily have been talking about Djokovic, Nadal, Federer or Andy Murray as Rune. New champions may be emerging but, in terms of character at least, it is not so much a new dawn as a case of back to the future.