Between howling winds, torrential rainfall and the random bounces of a court constructed with indecent haste, uncertainty has been the dominant key at the WTA Finals in Cancún. But as the endgame nears, so too does clarity.
Twelve months ago at the WTA’s season-ending showpiece, Aryna Sabalenka ended a four-match losing streak against Iga Swiatek to reach what was, at the time, the biggest final of her career. Now the pair will once again meet in the last four – this time with the year-end No 1 ranking on the line.
A win for Sabalenka, who defeated Elena Rybakina 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 to advance from Bacalar Group in second spot, would reaffirm the Belarusian’s place at the top of the pile. Should Swiatek prevail, however, victory in the final would secure not only a first WTA Finals crown but also a return to No 1 ranking she held for 75 weeks, until Sabalenka overtook her at the US Open.
The showdown has arrived a round earlier than anticipated but, after a week when the WTA has fought fires on multiple fronts, the governing body of the women’s game could hardly have hoped for more. Widely scorned for staging the jewel in its crown in a Caribbean beach resort at the height of the hurricane season, the organisation has also been forced to weather accusations of disrespect and indifference from its leading players. Now it is time for the tennis to do the talking, as the top two go head to head for the right to face either Coco Gauff, a 5-7, 7-6 (7-4), 6-3 winner over Marketa Vondrousova, or Jessica Pegula, who rounded off a perfect run in Chetumal Group with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Maria Sakkari.
Sabalenka and Swiatek both vowed to approach the match in similar vein, making allowances for the conditions while focusing on themselves rather than letting the magnitude of the occasion dictate their approach. They were also united in the belief that last year’s meeting in Fort Worth, where Sabalenka triumphed in three sets on a slow indoor court, would have no bearing on the latest instalment of a rivalry that Swiatek leads by five wins to three.
“It’s completely two different tournaments, two different conditions,” said Sabalenka, who was beaten by Caroline Garcia in last year’s final.
“This year, I have to focus on myself and not let all these thoughts, all these challenges, go to my mind and destroy me. So I’ll just focus on myself and do everything I can to keep winning.
“Of course, [year-end No 1] is important, and of course that’s something I really want. But I’m just trying to focus on myself, and I know that if I’m able to fight for every point and do everything I can to make it happen, I know that I’m able to do it. The rest, I just leave it and we’ll see at the end of this week where I am.”
The pair have faced each other twice this season, both times on clay, with Swiatek winning in Stuttgart before Sabalenka exacted revenge in Madrid. They were also seeded to meet in the final of the US Open, where Sabalenka was beaten in the title round by Coco Gauff after Swiatek, the defending champion, was upset by Jelena Ostapenko in the last 16. The Belarusian said at the time she would rather have played her arch-rival to decide the top ranking; now, she will belatedly get her wish.
“As I said at the US Open, I didn’t want her to lose that match, I really wanted to play against her to decide who is the No 1 in the world,” said Sabalenka, speaking before Swiatek’s 6-1, 6-2 victory over Ons Jabeur.
“[Now] I have the opportunity to make that happen, it’s a possibility that we’re going to play for the No 1 spot. I would love to play against Iga, that would be a really incredible match. I hope that the stadium will be full and they will keep screaming ‘Sabalenka!’”
There has certainly been no shortage of support for the 25-year-old in Cancún, where the locals appear to have fallen under the spell of her withering power and heart-on-sleeve expressiveness. Yet a sizeable Polish presence in the stands has ensured that Swiatek, too, has been buoyed by the fans in what few difficult moments she has faced. The Pole was in steely mood against Jabeur, just as she has throughout a tournament where she has yet to drop a set.
“Against Aryna it’s never easy,” said Swiatek, who claimed love sets against Gauff and Marketa Vondrousova in her two previous matches. “I’m just going to do my best and focus on myself and what I want to do on court. We usually have these matches that are really exciting and really tough, both mentally and physically.
“I’m just going to be ready and see how the wind is going to look and what’s going to happen on court. For sure, I can take the feeling that I can deal with any conditions and really play well no matter what, and that I’m able also to focus on the right things and do the right things.”
Those qualities were firmly in evidence against Jabeur, where Estadio Paradisus resembled a circus at times. The first of three early rain delays came at the end of the warm-up, a brief but heavy downpour resulting in a frenzied round of court-drying as the stadium reverberated to the strains of YMCA. As Jabeur looked on in amusement at the ball girls, who briefly downed their towels to perform the iconic dance to the Village People track, Swiatek retained a steely focus. The crowd had barely performed a Mexican wave before Swiatek speared a forehand winner to stave off a break point and then broken to love with some aggressive returning. She would not look back.
Sabalenka, trailing the second set 5-3 overnight, was obliged to take a more circuitous route to victory against Rybakina. As the fourth-seeded Kazakh drilled a forehand winner to complete a quick hold on the resumption, the stats made grim reading for Sabalenka, who won just 40% of her first serve points in the second set, making 13 unforced errors.
The decider began with a blizzard of big winners and big misses from Sabalenka, who battled for more than 15 minutes, saving two break points, before finally sealing what proved to be a crucial hold. Rybakina had been the better player up to that point but, having steadied the ship, Sabalenka earned a break in the fourth game behind a barrage of heavy groundstrokes. Rybakina quickly broke back, but a flurry of mistakes in her next service game proved terminal for the former Wimbledon champion, whose week ended as it began, with dark mutterings about the conditions.
“For me, it’s difficult to comment,” said Rybakina, who has declined all non-mandatory interviews in Cancún. “The quality of the matches has not been the greatest. You can see it even by the score – tough match, but you could see that in the rallies we were both making mistakes. I’m not really happy with the week of tennis, I would say – here, it’s difficult to show anything.”
The reality of that last statement may yet determine the outcome between Sabalenka and Swiatek. The pair have gone about their business in contrasting fashion this week, the Belarusian relying on her sledgehammer shot-making to hit through the wind, while Swiatek has combined her trademark aggression with a keen awareness of the damage that can be done with her heavy topspin and rapidly improving net game.
For all the determination of both women to focus on themselves, their ability to handle the elements is likely to have a significant influence on the final result. As Sabalenka put it, “Sometimes in these conditions, it’s not about you.”
It remains to be seen whether Sabalenka’s bludgeoning force and ferocious determination to retain the position she has worked so hard to attain will give her the edge over Swiatek’s greater margin and more consistent form.