1) Ashleigh Barty
Logic points to a Barty victory in New York. She’s the world No 1 and newly crowned Wimbledon champion. She leads the WTA Tour for match wins this season, claiming five titles on three different surfaces. She has arguably the most complete game of any woman out there. Surely she’s a shoo-in for US Open champion? Well, not necessarily. No player has done the Wimbledon-New York double since Serena Williams in 2012. In fact, since last autumn’s French Open – a sequence that includes four slams and an Olympics – no player has even made two major semi-finals. If Barty is to buck that trend, she’ll have to progress beyond the last 16 at Flushing Meadows for the first time in her career. She did exactly that at the All England Club, of course. But her draw in New York is about as tough as they come.
What she says: “This is a tournament that thrives with the energy and I can’t wait to get started.”
2) Aryna Sabalenka
If firepower alone won grand slam titles, Sabalenka would have a hatful by now. Nobody smokes the ball harder than the big-hitting Belarusian, but there’s a reason why Barty is the world No 1. A little variety never goes amiss and, as the Aussie has shown, the ability to absorb power can be just as important as the capacity to dish it out. But even in the absence of a contingency plan, Sabalenka is heading in the right direction. Having finally progressed beyond the fourth round of a major for the first time with her run to the Wimbledon semi-finals, she is up to a career-high ranking of No 2. An elusive first slam feels closer than ever, but a tough draw – she may have to get past Tamara Zidansek, Danielle Collins, Elise Mertens and Barbora Krejcikova just to make a semi-final against defending champion Naomi Osaka – suggests it might not come in New York.
What she says: “The goal is, as always, to win it. I think everyone has the same goal. But after Wimbledon I just understand that I don’t have to think about win it or final or be in the second week. I just have to enjoy my game.”
3) Naomi Osaka
In a necessarily selfish sport, Osaka takes a refreshingly broad view of the world. The 23-year-old pays heed to what’s going on around her, and is prepared to act. Last year in Cincinnati, she announced her withdrawal from the tournament in protest at the shooting of Jacob Blake, prompting the entire tennis treadmill to close down for the day in solidarity. At the US Open, she emerged as a powerful advocate for racial justice, using face masks to highlight police brutality and other acts of violence against black people. More recently, Osaka donated her Cincinnati prize money to relief efforts following the Haiti earthquake. For a naturally introverted character, it’s a lot to take on, and things finally came to a head at the French Open, where she revealed following her controversial withdrawal that she has suffered from depression. Only she will know how far her activism has compromised her tennis, but Osaka subsequently missed Wimbledon and has not looked quite the same since. Now might be the time for the defending champion to forget outside distractions and put herself first for once. If she does, a third US Open title in four years is well within her grasp.
What she says: “Whatever I feel, I’ll say or do it. I don’t necessarily think that’s a bad thing.”
4) Karolina Pliskova
Consistency has been a long time coming for the 2016 finalist, but the days when the rangy Czech could just as easily fall in the first round of any given tournament as win the title seem, finally, to be behind her. Defeated by Barty at Wimbledon in the second major final of her career, she immediately looked ahead to New York, and another chance to shake off her unwanted label as the best active player without a grand slam title to her name. It all points to an improved mindset under her new coach Sascha Bajin. Back up to world No 4 after briefly slipping out of the top 10 for the first time in five years before Wimbledon, the 29-year-old beat Sabalenka for the second time in two months to reach the final in Montreal, and followed up with a run to the semi-finals in Cincinnati. Still a major champion waiting to happen.
What she says: “I’m excited to be back in the city, in New York, because last year was not really like New York. So some shopping, of course, and then back to business.”
5) Elina Svitolina
Married life clearly agrees with the Ukrainian. No sooner had she tied the knot with Gael Monfils than she battled her way to an Olympic bronze medal, the most notable prize of a career that has too often flattered amid the daily grind of the WTA Tour only to deceive at the majors. Svitolina warmed up for Flushing Meadows, where she was a semi-finalist two years ago, with a confidence-bolstering title run in Chicago. Drawn in Osaka’s quarter, she is one to watch.
What she says: “I came [to Chicago] to get some confidence, play some good matches, and in the end it happened like that. I’m looking forward to New York.”
6) Bianca Andreescu
If the champion of two years ago had the physical endurance to match her deep reservoir of talent, her progress from a section that includes Petra Kvitova, Maria Sakkari and Jelena Ostapenko could almost be taken for granted. As it is, the young Canadian may have her work cut out to avoid a fifth first-round exit in six tournaments against Wimbledon quarter-finalist Viktorija Golubic.
What she says: “I’m really trying to focus on process and long-term, because I’m also only 21. I want to be able to do what 21-year-olds do. I feel like in 2019, it was just tennis, tennis, tennis.”
7) Iga Swiatek
It’s tough to say where Swiatek is at right now. After a disappointing loss to Maria Sakkari at Roland Garros, where she was the defending champion and joint favourite for the title, the Pole bounced back to reach the last 16 at Wimbledon for the first time. She was beaten by Ons Jabeur in SW19 and fell to the Tunisian again in the opening round of Cincinnati, her only match of the North American hard-court swing. Danger lurks in a section that includes Cincinnati finalist Jil Teichmann and Cleveland champion Anett Kontaveit. A projected quarter-final showdown with Barty is by no means a given for a player who has never previously been beyond round three in New York.
What she says: “Try, fail, learn, repeat … I’m looking forward to the next challenge.”
8) Barbora Krejcikova
A first grand slam title at the French Open, an Olympic gold medal in doubles, a debut in the world’s top 10. What a season it has been for a player ranked outside the top 100 this time last year. Demonstrated her hard-court pedigree with victory at the Prague Open and a solid run in Cincinnati, where she fell to Barty in the last eight. Seeded to mark her debut in the main draw of the singles with a last-eight showdown against Sabalenka. Expect her to keep the appointment.
What she says: “My debut is coming, the US Open is knocking on my door!”
9) Garbiñe Muguruza
A fine start to the season has drifted into mediocrity for the former French Open and Wimbledon champion. At her best, she is more than capable of winning the only major where she has yet to make the final. At her worst, she could go out in the opening round, where she faces a potentially tricky test against former quarter-finalist Donna Vekic. Assuming the Spaniard survives that test, former world No 1 Victoria Azarenka may lie in wait ahead of a possible last 16 clash with Krejcikova, her three-set conqueror in Cincinnati. Will have to put in the hard miles to reach the fourth round and equal her best previous showing.
What she says: “Well done is better than well said.”
10) Petra Kvitova
Twice a quarter-finalist at the US Open, Kvitova has endured a chequered season, losing early at all three majors. A good run in Cincinnati, where she racked up straight-sets wins against Madison Keys, Veronika Kudermetova and Jabeur before retiring from her quarter-final against Angie Kerber with a stomach issue, offers hope that better things may lie ahead. Here’s hoping the big lights inspire her.
What she says: “These streets will make you feel brand new.”
Best of the rest
Camila Giorgi, high on confidence after winning the biggest title of her career at the Canadian Open, was the one player every seed would have hoped to avoid in the opening round. Simona Halep, who has played just two matches since returning from her summer injury layoff, drew the short straw. It could be a tough day at the office for the 12th-seeded Romanian, but if she comes through it will be a major confidence boost.
Another name no one will want to see on the draw sheet is Belinda Bencic, the 11th seed and newly crowned Olympic champion. The Swiss is expected to meet Swiatek in the last 16, although first she’ll need to get past Montreal semi-finalist Jessica Pegula. A last-eight meeting with Barty would have real blockbuster potential.
Angelique Kerber knows the course and distance at Flushing Meadows, having won the title five years ago, and looks in the mood to rekindle past glories. She reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon and in Cincinnati, falling on both occasions to Barty. Drawn in the opposite half to the Australian here, the 16th-seeded German is well capable of derailing Osaka’s title defence should the pair meet as anticipated in the last 16.
Nor should the claims of Paula Badosa and Danielle Collins be overlooked. It’s been a breakthrough season for both players, with 24th seed Badosa reaching her first major quarter-final at the French Open and Collins, seeded 26th, winning the first titles of her career in Palermo and San Jose. Collins, who could face Sabalenka in round three, has the tougher quarter of the two, but both women have the potential to emerge from their respective quarters.