The noise surrounding the big three of women’s tennis has quietened of late.
Two and a half months ago, when Iga Swiatek romped through the field at the French Open to claim her fourth grand slam title, it was hard to resist suggestions that the sport was in thrall to a hallowed trinity consisting of the Polish world No 1, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina. They had, after all, carved up the previous five majors between them, their three-way rivalry seemingly set to define the women’s game for the foreseeable future.
Events since have complicated that rather tidy narrative.
Of the three, Swiatek has enjoyed the most encouraging US Open build-up. Since reaching a maiden grass-court semi-final in Bad Homburg and making the last eight at Wimbledon for the first time, the 22-year-old has won a fourth title of the year on the hard courts of Warsaw, and reached semi-finals in Montreal and Cincinnati. It is a far cry from last year, when Swiatek arrived at Flushing Meadows muttering darkly about the “horrible” balls in use over the US Open series after suffering unexpected defeats to Beatriz Haddad Maia and Madison Keys.
“I’m really happy with my performance in Montreal and Cincinnati,” said Swiatek. “I get more positive vibes, for sure, than before last year’s tournament.”
The same cannot be said of Rybakina and Sabalenka, whose fortunes since Roland Garros have followed a strangely similar path. Both lost early on the grass courts of Berlin, Rybakina struggling with a viral illness, Sabalenka struggling to heal the mental scars of failing to convert a match point against Karolina Muchova in the French Open semi-finals. Both lost to Ons Jabeur at Wimbledon – where Rybakina was the defending champion – and to Liudmila Samsonova in Montreal. And while both have made WTA 1000 semi-finals on the road to New York, neither has won a tournament since May – a fallow period that has done little to nurture the notion of a big three ahead of the season’s final grand slam.
In the meantime, the void has been filled by others. At Wimbledon, Marketa Vondrousova crept up on the rails to win her first major. Coco Gauff has been on a tear ever since responding to a first-round loss in SW19 by enlisting the coaching services of Pere Riba and Brad Gilbert, claiming a first WTA 500 title in Washington and a maiden WTA 1000 crown in Cincinnati a fortnight later. Sandwiched between Gauff’s twin triumphs came another fillip for US tennis in the form of Jessica Pegula’s title win in Montreal.
Elsewhere, Samsonova made back-to-back semi-finals in Washington and Montreal, while Danielle Collins, a former Australian Open finalist, has shown encouraging signs of a resurgence. Muchova, a contender for any title when form and fitness converge, repeated her French Open victory over Sabalenka to reach the Cincinnati final.
Yet the strength in depth of the women’s game is hardly a new phenomenon and, while it is possible to make a case for several contenders beyond the big three, it is equally legitimate to ask whether a summer of change has really changed anything at all.
True, Swiatek suffered her first tour-level defeat to Pegula in four years in Montreal, and lost to Gauff for the first time in eight meetings in Cincinnati. But the Polish defending champion will draw strength from the overall consistency of her North American summer, and has the additional advantage of knowing at firsthand what it takes to go the distance in New York. The onus is on her American challengers to prove they can replicate their winning performances under the magnified pressure of a grand slam on home soil. Swiatek has never been a player to rely on past performances as a barometer of future success, yet she acknowledges that last year’s title run infused her with a newfound belief in her hard-court abilities.
“Remembering this is a totally different chapter always helps,” said Swiatek. “[But] I also want to take a lesson from last year. I learned a lot during the US Open. This was probably the most important tournament in terms of me believing in myself and progressing on hard courts.
“I feel like in grand slams I’m more efficient. These are the tournaments that I focus on, that I work to have the best shape [in].”
Should Swiatek and Gauff cross swords in the last eight, as the seedings suggest, the teenager can expect to encounter a very different player to the one who committed a slew of unforced errors at key moments in Cincinnati. For all her focus on staying in the present, Swiatek is always more comfortable dealing in the familiar, and she will have taken careful note of the technical and tactical shifts that underpinned Gauff’s victory. Swiatek remains the player to beat, yet Gauff’s growing trust in the all-round strength of her game is well-founded.
“I’ve learned over the course of this summer that I don’t have to play A-plus tennis to win,” said Gauff. “Obviously going into the match, you hope to play the best tennis you can play, but it’s not possible all the time.
“I think I have much more confidence now in other aspects of my game. Maybe if my serve isn’t working, I have confidence in my groundstrokes or vice versa. I think I’m more confident being able to problem solve.”
In a section of the draw that includes Mirra Andreeva, the rising 16-year-old Russian who took the first set when they met at the French Open, as well as Petra Kvitova, Collins and Poland’s Magda Linette, who pushed her to a deciding set in the opening round two years ago, there should be no shortage of challenges for Gauff to unpick.
The survivor from the top quarter is projected to face the fourth-seeded Rybakina, although Marta Kostyuk, a powerful Ukrainian ranked 27 in the world, may have other ideas. Kostyuk has form for an early upset, having upended Maria Sakkari at Wimbledon and Caroline Garcia in Washington, and she should provide a solid test of Rybakina’s recovery from a marathon quarter-final win over Daria Kastakina in Montreal that ended shortly before 3am.
The normally forbearing Kazakh was vocal in her criticism of that episode, declaring herself “destroyed”, and she retired with an injury against Italy’s Jasmine Paolini the following week in Cincinnati. At a tournament where she has never been beyond the third round, fitness and freshness are likely to have a major bearing on Rybakina’s fortunes, especially in a quarter that includes Sakkari and Muchova.
Pegula too has been handed a tricky draw. First up is the unpredictable Camila Giorgi, ahead of a possible third-round meeting with Elina Svitolina, the popular Ukrainian who reached the last four at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Beyond that, Pegula may need to repeat her victory over Samsonova in Cincinnati, where the Russian was physically spent after playing twice in one day. Samsonova won the only previous grand slam meeting between the pair, which came two years ago at Wimbledon (albeit at a time when Pegula was dealing with the emotional fallout from her mother’s cardiac arrest).
Should Pegula reach the last eight, she could face Garcia – a semi-finalist last year, struggling for form this year – or Vondrousova. Having lost all seven of her previous grand slam quarter-final appearances, the American would no doubt confront a few personal demons too, although Pegula’s naturally laid-back disposition should help with that. “I just need to win a quarter-final,” she smiled when asked how she intended to break the sequence.
If she succeeds, Pegula will almost certainly find Sabalenka laying in wait. Despite her recent glut of disappointing semi-final defeats, the Belarusian has been the most consistent of the big three at the majors this season, following her first major win at the Australian Open with semi-finals in Paris and London. In New York, she will have the added incentive of challenging Swiatek for the world No 1 ranking at a third successive slam. Should she match or eclipse the Pole’s performance, Sabalenka will claim top spot for the first time.
“This is not something I’m really thinking during the tournament, during the matches,” said Sabalenka, who will open her campaign against Belgium’s Maryna Zanevska ahead of a possible quarter-final against Jabeur.
“I know that I had and probably I have the opportunity to become world No 1, but there is still a job to be done. I’m focusing on myself more than on the ranking.”
Sabalenka was defeated by Swiatek in last year’s semi-finals after leading by a set and a break. This time around, they cannot meet before the final. Should that happen, which seems a real possibility, expect the noise around the big three to resume with renewed force.
Semi-finals: Swiatek to defeat Muchova; Sabalenka to defeat Samsonova.
Final: Sabalenka to defeat Swiatek.