This time last year, Iga Swiatek arrived in Indian Wells shortly after winning her first title of the season at the Qatar Open. Little did she imagine what she had started.
After fighting her way back from a set down in three consecutive rounds, Swiatek found her stride at the sharp end of the tournament and soon found herself hoisting a trophy again, brushing aside Maria Sakkari in the final to win a second tournament in a row. With her 11th straight victory, she rose to No 2 in the world for the first time, joining Agnieszka Radwanska as the highest-ranked Polish player in history. Life, it seemed, could not get any better.
Except it did. Days later, Ashleigh Barty retired and Swiatek was crowned No 1. She marked the occasion by winning the Miami Open. Then came titles in Stuttgart, Rome and, in Paris, a second grand slam title. By the time she was finally beaten by Alizé Cornet in the third round of Wimbledon, she had accumulated 37 consecutive wins, equalling the longest winning streak since 1990. Before the year was out, she would add the US Open and San Diego titles to her burgeoning collection. It was a season for the ages.
But if 2022 was all about winning, this year is about dealing with the fallout from all that success. It is a task that runs significantly deeper than just defending points. What does success even look like, when you’ve already achieved so much?
It is a brave new world, a reality brought home to Swiatek following her recent tear through the Middle Eastern swing. After an emphatic title defence in Doha, where she conceded just five games in three matches, the 21-year-old advanced to the final of the season’s first WTA 1000 event in Dubai, where she fell one match short of perfection against Barbora Krejcikova. Twelve months ago, Swiatek’s run would have been greeted with universal acclaim; now, the merest hint of vulnerability becomes a talking point. Such is the lot of the world’s top-ranked player.
“Being No 1, I didn’t even dream about it, because I thought it’s not possible,” said Swiatek. “So it’s something that is totally over my expectations, and it’s a place where anyone would want to be. But for sure, it comes with a lot of pressure and expectations.
“For example, after Doha and Dubai I felt it pretty strongly, because I won a WTA 500 and then I was in the final of a 1000, and it was like a small streak of matches that were pretty solid and I was really composed. But still I lost in a final, and people were surprised, slash not happy with the performance, slash just critical.
“And it made me think that last year, before this huge streak, before winning all these tournaments, I would be so happy with the result. But because of these comments right now, I felt like, ‘Ooh, that’s not enough,’ you know.
“So I’m trying not to read a lot of these things and I don’t want it to influence me, because I’m happy with the work I’ve [done] and how I played in Doha and Dubai. But this is an example of how people’s attitude changed a little bit, and I don’t think it’s a positive change.”
Positive change is an area in which Swiatek is well versed. Her semi-final run at last year’s Australian Open, an early indication of the hard-court highs to come, was underpinned by a newfound willingness to combine her defensive skills with a more aggressive approach. This year, after losing early in Melbourne to Elena Rybakina, she again changed tack to telling effect, retreating to Warsaw to refine her technique and reset her mind. In Indian Wells, where she will open her title defence against Claire Liu, a 22-year-old Californian ranked 56th, Swiatek will seek to implement the tactical lessons gleaned from her loss to Krejcikova in Dubai.
“From every match I can take different stuff, because sometimes you make technical mistakes, and it’s pretty easy then, because you go and you work on that, and it’s getting better usually,” she said.
“Sometimes it’s tactical, so it depends. But it’s always about analysing and about approaching another tournament with the knowledge that you gained.
“For example, after Australia I knew technically what I had to change and my coach also knew, so we just worked in a really physical way on court for a couple of hours a day to make it better. But I think in Dubai it was more tactical, so from every defeat I can take a lot – and I’m using that knowledge, for sure.”
Given her draw, Swiatek is likely to need every advantage at her disposal. The third round could pit her against Bianca Andreescu, the 32nd seed and former US Open champion, while her projected last-16 opponent is Beatriz Haddad Maia, the powerful Brazilian who defeated her at the Canadian Open last autumn. Awaiting in the quarter-finals, if the seedings hold, will be Caroline Garcia, the French fifth seed. Garcia, a finalist in Lyon and Monterrey already this season, scored a memorable win over Swiatek at the Poland Open last summer, although she has struggled in the past to bring her formidable array of attacking skills to bear in the slow, often blustery conditions at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.
With Ons Jabeur, the fourth seed, and Rybakina, the Wimbledon champion, both returning from injury, Victoria Azarenka could emerge as the chief threat to Swiatek’s title defence in the second quarter. Twice a champion in the California desert – and runner-up to Paula Badosa in a thrilling three-set final two years ago – Azarenka knows the course and distance better than most. First, though, the Belarusian must navigate her way through a potentially tricky opener against the gifted and versatile Karolina Muchova.
Aryna Sabalenka, the second seed, has only once advanced as far as the fourth round but, despite her protestations to the contrary, there was little sign of her struggling to bring her power to bear against Russia’s Evgeniya Rodina.
“It was tricky game, I would say,” said Sabalenka, the Australian Open champion, after opening her challenge with an impressive 6-2, 6-0 victory. “I didn’t expect her to play that slow. I was struggling a little bit with adjusting [to] the balls, because it was super slow. Super happy with this win.”
Elsewhere in the bottom half, Sakkari took advantage of a rain delay to fight back from a set down against Shelby Rogers. The Greek, seeded seventh, claimed her first win in four meetings with Rogers, who struggled with a calf injury in the final set, 2-6, 6-4, 6-0. Projected to meet Jessica Pegula in the quarter-finals, Sakkari acknowledged that she will need to improve markedly if she is to make a second successive final.
“My level is nowhere near where I want it to be, but I’m OK with that and I’m going to work on it every single day in this tournament,” said Sakkari. “Obviously there is a little bit of pressure because I did well last year, but I just want to spend as much time as I can here.”
Pegula, the third seed, likewise came from a set down, seeing off Italy’s Camila Giorgi 3-6, 6-1, 6-2. The American remains the favourite to come through the third quarter but, on current form, Krejcikova looks like the player most likely to upset the applecart in the bottom half. The Czech, who got her campaign up and running with a 6-1, 6-2 over Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska, could face Sabalenka in round three.
Semi-final predictions: Swiatek to beat Azarenka; Pegula to beat Krejcikova.
Final prediction: Swiatek to beat Pegula.