Not for the first time, the odds favour Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon.
That might seem an odd thing to say, given that it is barely three weeks since the 37-year-old Serbian underwent knee surgery. Yet it is hard to conclude otherwise after Djokovic avoided both Jannik Sinner, the world No 1, and Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion, in Friday’s draw.
Despite his nail-biting defeat to Alcaraz in last year’s final, it is hard to dispute Djokovic’s status as the world’s best grass-court player. He has won seven Wimbledon titles. He has made the past five finals. Last summer’s loss was his first on Centre Court in a decade. And while history has shown that he needs little help once he enters the gates of the All England Club, help is precisely what he has received in the form of a draw that should afford him an opportunity to play his way into the tournament.
Djokovic will open his campaign on Tuesday against Vit Kopriva, a 27-year-old Czech qualifier ranked 123 in the world. Should he negotiate that hurdle, he would then face either Spain’s Alejandro Moro Canas, a qualifier ranked 189th who is making his grand slam debut, or Jacob Fearnley, a British wild card riding a career-high ranking of 271.
No player at this level can be underestimated, but it is a far cry from the challenges potentially awaiting Sinner. If the 22-year-old Italian wins his opener against Germany’s Yannick Hanfmann, he could face fellow countryman Matteo Berrettini, a player whose grass-court pedigree speaks for itself, in the second round. A finalist in SW19 three summers ago and winner of four grass-court titles, Berrettini has spent much of this season working his way back from injury, but has quickly found form with grass underfoot, reaching a third Stuttgart Open final earlier this month.
If Berrettini’s thunderclap serve, heavy forehand and skidding sliced backhand could pose early problems for Sinner, the same goes for Ben Shelton, the American world No 14, whom he will meet in round three if the seedings hold. Shelton has endured an underwhelming build-up to Wimbledon, losing three of his four warm-up matches, but his power and athleticism demand serious attention. The 21-year-old, who opens against fellow lefty Mattia Bellucci, an Italian qualifier, is surely a grass-court specialist in waiting.
While Sinner could face a battle to reach the second week, it is hard to imagine Djokovic being forced too far from his comfort zone before the last 16, where he is slated to face Holger Rune, the Danish 15th seed. Despite some indifferent form this year, most recently an early exit at Queen’s to Jordan Thompson, Rune has shown he can play on grass. He was a quarter-finalist last year, and has won two of his five meetings with Djokovic. Even so, it would be a surprise not to see the Serb in the quarter-finals, where he is expected to meet Hubert Hurkacz, the big-serving Pole who reached the semi-finals three years ago.
What of Alcaraz in all this? Winner of two of the past four majors, following his maiden French Open victoryearlier this month, the 21-year-old Spaniard opens against Mark Lajal, an Estonian qualifier ranked 262 in the world, and looks well placed to emerge from a quarter in which Tommy Paul, the 12th seed, may emerge as the chief early threat to his title defence. Paul, who meets Spain’s Pedro Martínez in the opening round, defeated Alcaraz in Toronto last summer and won at Queen’s Club last week – where Alcaraz, the defending champion, was beaten by Britain’s Jack Draper. That defeat meant Alcaraz slipped down a place to third in the rankings, scotching the prospect of a first grand slam final between the two brightest young stars in the game.
While all eyes will be on the top half of the draw, and the possibility of a 10th instalment in the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry – the Spaniard, who claimed a five-set victory in the French Open semi-finals earlier this month, leads the series by five wins to four – the seedings suggest Djokovic will meet Alexander Zverev for a place in the final. Whether that contest will materialise is another matter. While the fourth-seeded German arrives fresh from reaching the second major final of his career at Roland Garros, he has never won a grass-court title and has yet to advance beyond the fourth round at the All England Club.
Should Zverev’s traditional vulnerability at Wimbledon open the door for a surprise semi-finalist to emerge from the third quarter, Draper, seeded 28th and up against Swedish qualifier Elias Ymer in the opening round, may like his chances. Likewise Andrey Rublev, the sixth seed, who was a quarter-finalist two years ago. But Taylor Fritz, who also reached the last eight in 2022, losing an epic five-setter to Rafael Nadal, will be eager to make amends for the frustrations of last summer, when he ran out of steam against Mikael Ymer in round two after surviving a rain-delayed, three-day opener against Hanfmann. Fritz, seeded 13th, starts against Australia’s Christopher O’Connell.
Two-time champion Andy Murray, who will be playing at Wimbledon for the final time, has said he will wait until the last minute before deciding on whether to take to the court for his opening match. Drawn against Tomas Machac, the big-hitting Czech against whom he ruptured ankle ligaments three months ago in Miami, Murray is striving to recover fitness after undergoing surgery on his back last weekend.
Murray’s predicament is one with which Djokovic will no doubt sympathise. A repeat of last year’s final against Alcaraz, or a renewal of acquaintances with Sinner, who dethroned him at the Australian Open in January, may come too soon for the Serb after his own recent injury travails, but he has given himself an opportunity to compete, and for now that is all he will care about.
“It’s been an intense three weeks after surgery, spending a lot of hours rehabbing,” said Djokovic. “I kind of always wanted to give myself a chance to be in London. I think my surgeon is here. He’s the MVP for sure the last three weeks. I’m trying to take it day by day and see how far it goes.”