There is a moment in Hamlet when Shakespeare’s hero implies that the ghost of his dead father returned simply to inform him that every villain in Denmark is a scoundrel. Hamlet is trying to avert attention from the truth, which is that he has been called upon to avenge his father’s murder, but his friend Horatio is unimpressed, retorting: “There needs no ghost, my lord, come from the grave, to tell us this.”
One was put in mind of this exchange by a swanky new feature on the Wimbledon website that uses artificial intelligence to assess the merits of each player’s draw. Click on the entry for Novak Djokovic, and you will be informed that the seven-time champion’s projected path to the final is the second most favourable of the 128 starters at the All England Club.
Since the technology also predicts that, from the fourth round onwards, Djokovic’s route to a ninth final will pit him against Hubert Hurkacz, Alexander Bublik and Casper Ruud – a trio of players to whom he has never lost – one might quibble that his draw appears a good deal more favourable than that of the top seed, Carlos Alcaraz, who is projected to face Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev.
Either way, we need no artificial intelligence, come from the digital ether, to tell us that Djokovic will probably win Wimbledon.
Consider the evidence. With a men’s record 23 grand slams, a milestone he achieved at the French Open last month, Djokovic is the most successful male player in history. He has not lost a completed match at the All England Club for seven years, and you have to go back even further, to 2013, to find his last defeat on Centre Court. That came against Andy Murray, the only other player in the draw with first-hand knowledge of the course and distance at Wimbledon. The Scot has not advanced beyond the third round since 2017, however, when his right hip first gave way.
As for the rest of the erstwhile Big Four, Rafael Nadal is absent, recovering from hip issues of his own, while Roger Federer, whose men’s record of eight titles Djokovic aims to match a fortnight from now, is nine months into his retirement.
Who, then, can stop Djokovic from equalling Margaret Court’s all-time record of 24 majors – and heading to the US Open with the calendar-year grand slam in his sights for the second time in three seasons?
First quarter
The most obvious answer to that question, albeit a less persuasive one than might have been the case a month ago, is Alcaraz.
On any other surface, it would be entirely reasonable to take a favourable view of the Spanish world No 1’s prospects of exacting swift vengeance for his semi-final defeat at the French Open. But as we saw at Roland Garros, where Alcaraz’s body broke down under the stress of facing Djokovic over five sets for the first time, experience is everything at the sharp end of a slam – and nowhere more so than on grass, where the 20-year-old will be contesting only the fourth senior tournament of his career.
That said, Alcaraz is a fast learner. He may only have played 11 grass-court matches at tour level, but he has won nine of them, and defeated Australia’s Alex De Minaur last weekend to mark his Queen’s Club debut with a first trophy on grass. Alcaraz, who opens against the French veteran Jeremy Chardy, could face an early test against Arthur Rinderknech, who forced him to a final-set tiebreak in his opener at Queen’s. Neither would a third-round meeting with Nicolás Jarry, the 25th seed, be a walk in the park: the 27-year-old Chilean has two title wins this year, and took the opening set against the US Open champion when the pair met in the Rio Open semi-finals earlier this year.
Alcaraz’s all-court game would make him a favourite against Rune should the pair meet, as projected, in the last eight. But the experience and firepower of Zverev and Medvedev, whom he could meet either side of that clash, will ensure he has his work cut out. Alcaraz is under no illusions about the enormity of the challenge – even he sees Djokovic as the title favourite – but does not lack belief.
“[I am] coming here to Wimbledon with a lot of confidence, thinking that I’m able to do good results here,” said Alcaraz. “Obviously, for me, the main favourite is Djokovic. But my expectations are high.
“I think I will be able to put the pressure on the other players, even Djokovic as well. But all I can say is I feel confident, and I feel ready to do good things here.”
Semi-finalist: Alcaraz.
Second quarter
Fun fact: Andy Murray, whose victory over Djokovic in 2013 ended Britain’s 77-year wait for a male singles champion, is the only player ever to beat the Serbian strongman in a Wimbledon final.
Having planned his season around Wimbledon, skipping the French Open in order to prepare for the tournament that he feels offers his best chance of rekindling some semblance of the glory years, Murray arrives at the All England Club in chipper mood. The former world No 1 claimed a pair of Challenger titles in Surbiton and Nottingham last month, winning 10 matches in a row for the loss of just one set, and feels he is ready to make a deep run for the first time since 2016, when he won the second of his two titles.
“A lot of it comes down to your performance,” said Murray, who will open against Ryan Peniston, a British wildcard. “Depending on draws and situations and everything, it’s possible to play poorly and make the quarter-finals.”
An early exit at Queen’s meant Murray missed out on the chance to earn a seeding, although a possible second-round meeting with Stefanos Tsitsipas – who must first negotiate an intriguing opener against Dominic Thiem – would offer a chance to inherit the mantle of the Greek fifth seed. Like Medvedev, who is seeded third but has never previously been beyond the quarter-finals, Tsitsipas has yet to replicate his hard-court form on grass.
Medvedev, however, demonstrated with his May title run in Rome that he has the ability to conquer hitherto unrewarding surfaces. The quality of his serve and returns suggest he is overdue a good run at Wimbledon and, with five titles from six finals already this season, the Russian is in a winning vein. Also in this section are Cameron Norrie, a semi-finalist last year, and Sebastian Korda, who defeated the 12th-seeded Brit en route to the last four at Queen’s. Both will be eager to have their say.
Semi-finalist: Medvedev.
Third quarter
To say that Casper Ruud’s preparation for Wimbledon has been unconventional would be an understatement. While his rivals have been busy honing their grass-court skills, Ruud has played some golf, done a little shooting, and been to see The Weeknd play live in Stockholm and Oslo. It’s almost as though the Norwegian fourth seed, who has admitted he is allergic to grass, isn’t altogether focused on Wimbledon after reaching a second successive French Open final.
“It’s great, it’s fun,” said Ruud of his return to the All England Club, where he will open against Laurent Lokoli of France.
“I’ve been joking a bit about my preparations for Wimbledon in the past, that I don’t play that much on grass coming into the tournament, but it doesn’t mean I don’t take this tournament very seriously. I always come here to try do my best. It’s just that maybe my game doesn’t suit the grass so well.”
That being the case, it would seem prudent to look further afield for a potential semi-finalist in this section, where Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz both have strong claims. The pair reached the quarter-finals last year, Sinner fading against Djokovic after taking the first set, while Fritz lost in a fifth-set tiebreak to an ailing Nadal. Given that the Spaniard was subsequently forced to pull out of his semi-final against Nick Kyrgios, Fritz could be forgiven for feeling he has unfinished business at the All England Club.
Caveats are required, however. Fritz appears bereft of form, having lost early at both Queen’s and Eastbourne (where he was the top seed). The big-serving Californian also has a potentially tricky opener against Germany’s Yannick Hanfmann, who beat him in straight sets in Rome. Sinner, meanwhile, has not struck a ball in anger since an adductor injury forced him to retire from his Halle quarter-final with Bublik, although he was in positive mood ahead of his opener against Argentina’s Juan Manuel Cerundolo.
“I have some very good memories from last year, and I’m just trying to start the first round match with a positive mindset,” said the Italian eighth seed, who defeated Alcaraz in the fourth round last summer. “Hopefully I can show some good tennis.”
Semi-finalist: Sinner.
Fourth quarter
Djokovic will open his title defence against Argentina’s Pedro Cachin, the world No 67. From there, according to Wimbledon’s AI analysis, his route to the final will pit him against Australia’s Jordan Thompson, the world No 70; Tomas Martin Etcheverry, the 29th seed; former semi-finalist Hubert Hurkacz, seeded 17th; Bublik, the 23rd seed; and Ruud. It is hard to see any of those players troubling Djokovic at a tournament he reveres, and on a surface where he has long since become a past master.
Elsewhere, Lorenzo Musetti, another potential fourth-round opponent, can at least lay claim to a recent win over Djokovic, having ambushed the Serb in Monte Carlo. That, though, was on clay, a world away from the perfectly manicured lawns of Wimbledon. Similar reservations apply to Andrey Rublev, whom Djokovic is seeded to meet in the last eight, and whose only win in four meetings with the defending champion also came on a clay court.
That leaves Kyrgios, who took the opening set against Djokovic in last year’s final but has played just one match since undergoing knee surgery in January. The Australian, who will face David Goffin in the opening round, said he was “extremely confident” he could do well in spite of his lengthy hiatus, but admitted that his preparation has been far from ideal.
“I still think there’s some question marks,” said Kyrgios. “Obviously, five-set tennis is a completely different base altogether. I look at my preparations last year coming in, I probably had the most ideal preparation possible. It couldn’t be any different this year.”
Djokovic, meanwhile, has stuck to the same formula that has served him so well in the past. He has not played a tournament on grass beforehand, He is ready and rested, having taken a brief holiday with his wife Jelena in the Azores. Far from sated by his victory in Paris, he says he is “hungry for success, for more grand slam titles”. It all sounds ominously familiar.
“When I enter Centre Court, it just awakens something in me and I am able to perform at a very high level,” said Djokovic.
Semi-finalist: Djokovic.
Semi-finals: Alcaraz to defeat Medvedev; Djokovic to defeat Sinner.
Final: Djokovic to defeat Alcaraz.