If Indian Wells really were the fifth grand slam, as it has often been labelled, it would be an outlier. While the majors continue to be largely dominated by Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, the last member of the big three to triumph in the California desert was Roger Federer in 2017. That is not quite the statistical anomaly it may appear – the trio did, after all, carve up 13 of the tournament’s 14 editions between 2004 and 2017 – but it is indicative of the event’s capacity to throw up surprise winners like Taylor Fritz and Cameron Norrie, the two most recent champions.
Will there be another tale of the unexpected this year? With Djokovic once again unable to enter the United States, Nadal still working his way back from injury and Federer enjoying his retirement on the ski slopes of Switzerland, the outlook is encouraging. The sense of opportunity is all the more palpable for the fact that the chief contenders all arrive in the Coachella Valley with questions to answer about their form, fitness or track record at the event.
First quarter
Take Carlos Alcaraz, the top seed, who has the chance to reclaim the No 1 ranking from Djokovic if he can land a first title. On the one hand, the 19-year-old has achieved some good results since returning from the hamstring injury that kept him out of the Australian Open. But having won a title in Buenos Aires last month and then advanced to the final of the Rio Open, Alcaraz aggravated the muscle again and was subsequently forced to pull out of Acapulco.
The Spaniard, who looked sharp in practice against Frances Tiafoe, insists he has made a full recovery. The proof, as he sets his sights on a swift return to top spot, will come in a potentially tricky opener against Australian powerhouse Thanasi Kokkinakis.
“I feel great,” said Alcaraz, who refuses to see himself as the title favourite at his first hard-court event since last November. “I took some days off and it was really good for me. Right now, I’m ready.
“For me, winning the tournament and being No 1 again is a really good goal, and I really want to go for it.”
Second quarter
To do so, Alcaraz may have to go through Fritz, the defending champion and fourth seed, whom he will face in the semi-finals if the seedings hold. The early months of 2023 have been a mixed bag for the 25-year-old Californian, who was beaten early at the Australian Open but went on to win his first title of the season in Delray Beach last month, either side of semi-final appearances in Dallas and Acapulco. The alarming nature of Fritz’s exit at the latter event, where he narrowly avoided hospitalisation following a gruelling three-set battle with Tommy Paul in fierce humidity, was hardly ideal preparation for his return to the scene of last year’s breakthrough win against Nadal.
Fritz will open his title defence against his 20-year-old countryman Ben Shelton, a surprise quarter-finalist at the Australian Open, in a contest that will not want for firepower. Assuming he negotiates that potential banana skin, he is seeded to meet Alex De Minaur in the round of 16 and either Holger Rune or Jannik Sinner in the quarters. Like Fritz himself, all are recent title winners. If the American makes his scheduled appointment with Alcaraz, he will have earned it.
Third quarter
What of Casper Ruud, the third seed? After the highs of last year, when he made a trio of big finals at Roland Garros, the US Open and the ATP Finals, Ruud has endured a slow start to this season, winning just two of his four matches so far. The Norwegian, who took most of February off to recover from the abdominal problem that hampered him during his shock second-round loss to Jenson Brooksby at the Australian Open, could have wished for an easier first opponent than Diego Schwartzman. The recent illness of his father has weighed heavily on Schwartzman but, while the Argentinian’s results have understandably suffered, the fact remains that he has won five of his eight meetings with Ruud – including a straight-sets victory in Indian Wells two years ago.
With Ruud under pressure to rediscover the form that carried him to the Miami Open final last spring, Daniil Medvedev, his prospective quarter-final opponent, is the obvious favourite to come through the third quarter of the draw. The Russian, seeded fifth but playing tennis befitting of a world No 1, is targeting a fourth straight title following a remarkable run of success in Rotterdam, Doha and Dubai, where he ended Djokovic’s unbeaten start to the season. Yet Indian Wells has not been a happy hunting ground for the 27-year-old, who has only once made it to the round of 16. Medvedev, who will open his challenge against Brandon Nakashima, the rising American who won his first ATP title in nearby San Diego last autumn, is taking nothing for granted.
“New tournament, new story,” he mused in Dubai as he contemplated his prospects of extending a run of 14 straight wins.
Fourth quarter
Then again, with only six victories from 11 previous outings in the California desert, perhaps a new narrative is just what Medvedev needs. Particularly since, should he make it through to the last four, he would potentially face Stefanos Tsitsipas, the second seed, who has got the better of him in their two most recent meetings. What an occasion that would be, after Medvedev used his Dubai winner’s speech to take a thinly veiled swipe at Tsitsipas over his snarky aside about Andrey Rublev at the ATP Finals, where the beaten Greek remarked that Rublev “managed to prevail with the few tools he has”.
“Hopefully [Rublev] can beat this guy many, many times – and I wish this for you,” said Medvedev, who is a close friend of his compatriot.
If the sixth-seeded Rublev can pick up from where he left off in Dubai, a first opportunity to fulfil that wish could come as soon as the quarter-finals. Tsitsipas, who has struggled with a shoulder injury in the weeks since his barnstorming run to the Australian Open final, has not played competitively since his early exit in Rotterdam three weeks ago. For now, he is just happy to be back on court.
“It has been a while since I stepped on a court and played a match, so it is great being back,” said Tsitsipas, who opens against Jordan Thompson, the Australian world No 87.
“I might not be at the best with the way I am feeling on the court right now, but I am pleased to have the opportunity to compete.”
With Tsitsipas potentially vulnerable and Rublev, a semi-finalist last year, in a solid run of form, much could depend on the Russian’s second-round meeting with Jiri Lehecka, the rising Czech who upset him at the Qatar Open last month.
Nor should the claims of Norrie, the 2021 champion, be overlooked. The British 10th seed, who avenged his defeat to Alcaraz in the Argentina Open final by pipping the Spaniard to the post at the Rio Open, opens against Taiwan’s Tung-Lin Wu.
Also lurking, in what feels like the most open section of the draw, is Frances Tiafoe, who offered such a stirring demonstration of what he can on a home-soil hard court by reaching the semi-finals of last year’s US Open. Tiafoe opens against another American, the 73rd-ranked Marcos Giron, ahead of a projected fourth-round meeting with Tsitsipas.
Semi-final predictions: Alcaraz to beat Rune; Medvedev to beat Lehecka.
Final prediction: Alcaraz to beat Medvedev.